An Alternative "Peace" Scenario for the Middle East

The war that will break out following the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

palIsrael’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to fly to Washington on March 2, 2014, where he will address the AIPAC Conference. The following day, Netanyahu will meet with U.S. President Barack Obama in the White House. The two will likely focus their talks on the ongoing negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, and the Israeli- Palestinian peace process led by Secretary of State John Kerry.

Kerry, according to Israeli sources, is preparing to present the framework for an agreement which would include Palestinian recognition of Israel as the nation state of the Jews, side by side with Israel’s recognition of Palestine as the nation state of the Palestinian.  Regarding borders, Kerry’s document is said to note that the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians will be based on the 1967 lines, allowing for land swaps, and taking into consideration demographic changes that have occurred in recent decades.

Some pundits have concluded that PM Netanyahu may accept Secretary of State John Kerry's framework proposal. A plan, that according to Charles Jacobs, co-founder of Americans for Peace and Tolerance, “pushes the Jewish state back to the 1967 lines, with land swaps, abandons 25-30% of Jewish ‘settlers’ behind those lines, and cedes or leases to the PA for a dozen or so years the Jordan Valley, long valued by both Labor and Likud as Israel's protective barrier, without which there will exist an Arab land bridge from Baghdad to the gates of Tel Aviv.”

Then, there is another scenario to be considered… attending the Bar Mitzvah celebration of a mutual acquaintance, both PM Netanyahu and Professor Israel (Robert) Aumann, the recipient of 2005 Nobel Prize in Economics (a prize he shared with Thomas Schelling for their work on conflict and cooperation through game-theory analysis), have a discussion.

Netanyahu approaches Aumann, a professor at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, with a request to prepare a scenario in which a war breaks out five years after Israeli forces withdraw from Judea and Samaria (West Bank). Netanyahu urges Aumann to use his vast knowledge in game-theory analysis to prepare a report, which he plans to show Obama in a private meeting.

Professor Aumann provides Netanyahu with a 92-page report, which details the development of operation “Steel Punch,” also known by the people as the “war without Judea and Samaria.” Using data from the Second Lebanon War (2006) and the Gaza War (Cast Lead, 2008-2009), Aumann notes that…almost immediately after statehood, the Palestinians announce a plan for the buildup of an industrial and agricultural infrastructure that requires the aerial shipment and importation of heavy equipment. Soon thereafter, Israel’s intelligence services would discover that along with the importation of “heavy equipment,” sophisticated arms manufacturing equipment is being smuggled in for the construction of missiles of various ranges, armored cars, and explosives.

Three years following the establishment of an independent Palestinian state in 97% of the West Bank territory, including the Gaza Strip and a land bridge that would connect between Gaza and the West Bank, the Palestinians would inaugurate two airports, an international airport somewhere between Ramallah and Nablus, and a domestic airport in Gaza.

Five years following the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, a war against the Jewish State will break out on all fronts: Lebanon, Gaza, and the West Bank.

The Islamic Republic of Iran, which had signed an agreement with the P5+1 five years earlier, allowing inspection by IAEA inspectors of its nuclear facilities, provides the nascent Palestinian state with the so-called industrial and agricultural “heavy equipment,” that was a mere cover for  arms shipments. Let us recall that Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas), President of the Palestinian Authority, vowed in an interview with the New York Times (February 2, 2014) that “We will be demilitarized.”

The same Iranian regime that would provide “industrial and agricultural heavy equipment,” demands as a quid-pro-quo that at a given signal the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank and Hezbollah in Lebanon launch a massive bombardment of Israel covering the entire length of the country. The ostensible excuse for the war on Israel, as expressed by the Prime Minister of Palestine Marwan Barghouti (currently in Israeli prison), is that Israel failed to carry out its commitments on the “Palestinians right of return.”

Professor Aumann’s report covers the various actions taken by the combatants including the hurried mobilization of the Israeli reserve forces. Fighting occurs between the IDF and Arab-Israeli “Fifth-Columnists” who deliberately block the crossroads on the way to mobilization points. Israeli Arabs openly express their support for the war against Israel in spite of being victimized by the Palestinian heavy bombardment of Israel.

Professor Aumann presents in his report, the balance sheet of the war that lasts a month and a half. Greater Tel Aviv in particular, pays the heaviest price in destruction and casualties as a result of the war. The war does, however bring about full unity between the political Left and Right in Israel. This unity results in a forceful Israeli response. It lifts all restraints from the IDF as Israel faces the possible destruction of its Third Commonwealth. The Palestinians and Palestine pay an even heavier price for their aggression. The loss of life on the Palestinian side is horrendous.

PM Netanyahu, in presenting the report to President Obama says, “My dear friend President Obama, the State of the Jewish People, the State of Israel, where the People of the Book assembled after 2000 years of persecution and exile, are unwilling to step off the pages of history as a defeated nation. We are in opposition to an additional sovereign state between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea.”

In his article at, titled The Blackmailer Paradox: Game Theory and Negotiations with Arab Countries, Professor Aumann writes: “The political relationship between Israel and Arab countries is conducted according to the principles of this (Blackmailer) paradox. The Arabs (that of course refers to the Palestinians) present rigid and unreasonable opening positions at every negotiation. They convey confidence and assurance in their demands, and make certain to make absolutely clear to Israel that they will never give up on any of these requirements. Absent an alternative, Israel is forced to yield to blackmail due to the perception that it will leave the negotiating room with nothing if it is inflexible.”

PM Netanyahu has choices to make. He will likely press President Obama on stopping Iran’s continued advancement of its nuclear program, and call for sanctions to be strictly maintained. Obama will press back, demanding that Israel comply with Kerry’s framework for peace. Netanyahu will probably accept the ‘framework’ with some reservations. The Palestinians might be persuaded to recognize Israel as the national state of the Jewish People, but will then demand “the right of return” of Palestinian refugees, or alternatively, call for the immediate and total control over the Jordan Valley. Should the Palestinians fully accept the Kerry framework parameters, it is all the more imperative for Netanyahu to present Obama with the Aumann scenario. Israeli governments in the past have rejected U.S. administration pressures and threats when Israel’s vital security interests were imperiled.  PM Netanyahu should do no less.


Don't miss Jamie Glazov's video interview with Mudar Zahran, a secular leader of Palestinians in Jordan who has been living in exile in the UK since 2010. He calls out John Kerry on his Mideast "Peace" Plan -- and asks why a U.S. Secretary of State is threatening Israel to commit suicide:

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