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One of the great weaknesses of American foreign policy has been our predictability. Our opponents have been able to pinpoint what we would and would not do.
While one President Trump’s greatest strengths has been his unpredictability. And on the Iran strikes, he not only kept everyone guessing until the last minute, but used sophisticated means to draw everyone off. Tucker Carlson’s pal Dan Caldwell was booted from the Pentagon over allegations of leaking. So were a number of others. When the strikes were actually launched, there were zero leaks despite claims by some in the media that they were getting information from anonymous “officials”. Everyone had learned to stay quiet on the big issue.
The media and social media analysts were misled about our staging prep for an attack which proceeded quite differently.
President Trump’s “two week” deadline may have been sincere but fell apart when Iran refused to engage in high-level negotiations, but it may have been another level of the feint.
Either way everyone was caught by surprise. Including yours truly. And that’s a good thing.
It’s also a message to China. The CCP believes that it can anticipate and predict us. When it can’t, it gets nervous. Any CCP plan for Taiwan just became a lot shakier because there is no way that Xi and top officials can look at what happened with Iran and believe that they can gauge America’s response with any degree of certainity.
The Israeli response after Oct 7 against Hezbollah and now Iran already showed how war plans by their allies could go awry through misdirection and sophisticated planning. The Iran strikes are a more direct warning to China that America’s moves cannot be predicted and that, like the Israelis, we might be capable of something more sophisticated than our actions in the last generaton would suggest.
China’s allies in the Middle East are losing. And America just became unpredictable. That might buy us the time we need in the Pacific.
It now seems likelier that Xi will push back whatever he was planning for after 2028.
Excellent coverage and analysis, thanks !!!!!!!
Yes, Xi Ping Pong can go eat a bowl of rice and STFU. And Chinese rice sucks compared to California rice.
I knew this was going to happen. Trump gets people to look one way but then acts from another. But if you watch the guy his resolve is easy to see. I wouldn’t fuck with him.
Iran got what was coming to them, and China is definitely a threat, but mostly I care about destroying the deep state domestic enemy. Does this military action empower the deep state intelligence apparatus or is it disempowering by refocusing them on foreign threats? Trump’s support is strong but a prolonged conflict could go a long way in fracturing it, which is certainly the main goal of his democrat/RINO/deep state enemies, since their assassination attempts failed.
It was also unconstitutional. President doesn’t have the authority to do this, and yes I know many have done it, but the text of the Constitution is clear that that power to engage in war or military strikes or even sending private mercenaries is with Congress, not the Executive. Foolish people are cheering this after decades of propaganda against Iran. Funny, how everyone only wants to go back 46 years… try going back to 1953 when we stuck our nose where it didn’t belong… and that’s the reason for Iran in the 70’s, but shhhh we don’t want anyone looking at the propaganda we put out all for the sake of…. Israel.
Iran walked out of talks with Europe saying they would choose war over giving up the nuclear program. That is what ended the 2 weeks.
The dimensional moves of chess vs the predictable moves of checkers.