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For those who follow international politics, the days following Israel’s June 13 attack on Iran meant an addictive check of the smartphone every few hours to learn the latest twist. From that avalanche of surprises, twelve stand out, one marking each day of the Twelve-Day War. A question about the future follows each historical snippet.
For starters, the American side:
1. The White House cowboy succeeded
An uninhibited, reckless, norm-breaking egomaniac dominates American public life as no politician in 236 years. Yes, Donald Trump served as president once before, but he then felt relatively constrained. Four years out of power, some of it sitting humiliated in a dingy courtroom, meant a return to the presidency raring to do things his way, ignoring customs, caution, and propriety. This initially played out domestically, with an unprecedented assertiveness vis-à-vis the executive branch, Congress, and the courts. The Israel-Iran War took it to the world stage, with Trump apparently solo extemporizing his own rules, strategies, and communications, startling even his own aides. To a remarkable extent, his efforts worked. Is this a one-time fluke or a sign of things to come?
2. Washington preempted a potential nuclear enemy
Harry Truman did not prevent the Soviet Union from going nuclear, nor did Lyndon Johnson stop Communist China, or George W. Bush North Korea. Trump’s decision to attack Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, therefore, creates a hugely important precedent for U.S. foreign policy. Not less important, he threatened “future attacks [that] would be far greater and a lot easier,” suggesting he is ready to strike again should Tehran not surrender its enriched uranium. Israel has preempted thrice (Iraq in 1981, Syria in 2007, Iran in 2025); does it now have in the United States an active non-proliferation partner?
3. Americans can still lead
No other outside government had meaningful influence over the Israel-Iran confrontation. Trump’s outsized personality sidelined the world. Allies meekly went along with him, adversaries mumbled ineffectual words of criticism – none of it made a difference. Most notably, Beijing and Moscow offered Tehran only the thin gruel of verbal support. Will this disproportionate role continue when a Democrat next becomes president?
4. A partisan Washington-Jerusalem bond
The full American role in helping Israeli forces attack Iranian sites only started to emerge after the fighting stopped. For example, we now know that the U.S. Air Force provided hundreds of aerial refuelings for Israeli jets over Syria or Iraq on their way to Iran. A strong Republican party partnership with Israel makes obvious sense, as Israel comes closer to conservative American values of any foreign country, even Australia, Canada, or Great Britain. At the same time, that harmony comes at the expense of Democratic party support. (Democrats just nominated a candidate for mayor of New York City who calls Israeli actions in Gaza a “genocide.”) Does Israel’s close teamwork with Trump mean the next Democratic president will ditch it?
5. A quick, decisive American Middle East success
What are called endless wars have soured the U.S. electorate on nation-building. Wall Street Journal columnist Walter Russell Mead notes the “appalling” record: “From Mr. Bush’s ill-fated invasion of Iraq to Barack Obama’s shambolic intervention in Libya and Joe Biden’s bungled withdrawal from Afghanistan, American presidents have blundered across the region, losing trillions of dollars and thousands of lives.” In response, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance has defined a Trump Doctrine: articulate a clear American interest; engage in aggressive diplomacy; if that fails, use overwhelming military power; then “get the hell out.” Should the deployment of B-2 bombers actually end Iranian enrichment of uranium, this new doctrine can hold. Should it not, as Iranian authorities insist will be the case, the reluctance to deploy force will be confirmed. Which way will Iran go?
6. Alarmists made wrong predictions
Ahead of time, wild prophecies emerged about the consequences of a U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear sites. American commentator Tucker Carlson, for example, warned this “will almost certainly result in thousands of American deaths … and cost the United States tens of billions of dollars.” In fact, not a single American died in combat, the Hormuz Straits remained open, fighting stayed confined, and financial markets by June 24 had bounced back to their June 12 levels. Will isolationist fear-mongering finally be discredited?
Second, some Israeli surprises:
7. Air power won the day
Analysts concur that prevailing in war requires a willingness to place troops on the ground. The limited Israeli and American goals in this confrontation made it possible to defy that general rule: bombs can more easily knock out infrastructure than conquer and occupy land. Will this exception lead to an over-emphasis on air power?
8. Pre-placed agents changes the battlefield
In-country agents, many Iranian, dispatched drones and targeted assassinations. In a remarkable coincidence, Ukraine unleashed its Operation Spiderweb on June 1, just twelve days before Israel’s Operation Rising Lion. Both required over a year of planning, both involved extensive clandestine activities in enemy territory, and both led to surprise attacks that inflicted highly visible damage.
While sabotage in hostile territory is hardly new, these operations set a new standard: destroying strategic aircraft in the Ukrainian case, knocking out missile launchers and eliminating key regime figures in the Israeli one. “Deep integration of special operations forces, autonomous drones, and AI-enabled intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance is now the baseline for theater entry” writes Benjamin Jensen of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Is he right that this amounts to a “new way of war”?
9. Israel dominates
With the exception of Türkiye, Israel alone in the Middle East seriously aspires to mount a conventional force (that is, airplanes, tanks, and ships). Plus, Israel’s intelligence accomplishments continue to astonish. If Israel’s victory in June 1967 ranks as the most lopsided in history, its June 2025 success ranks not far behind. That is, first the Six-Day War, now the Twelve-Day War. Note that the recent campaign involved far more complex operations than that old one. Also, today’s regional environment favors Israel far more than the one 58 years ago. Trump’s special Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff publicly expects “some pretty big announcements on countries that are coming into the Abraham Accords.” Is this the Saudi moment?
10. Israel’s Gaza failure
However quick and brilliant its success versus Iran, a country of 90 million, Israel continues to fare dismally in its other war, the one against Hamas, where it has stumbled through 631 days, unable to knock out a bunch of Iranian-backed thugs. Israel’s security establishment seems bifurcated. An offensive, fight-to-win part deals with states and their proxies, while a defensive, calm-seeking counterpart deals with Palestinians. The former basks in a deserved reputation for creativity, ingenuity and daring. The latter represents its uncelebrated, dull, and reticent counterpart. The former seeks victory, the latter seeks quiet. The one wins, the other struggles. Can the dismal part learn from its successful counterpart?
Finally, two Iranian surprises:
11. Performative war replaced real war
Not for the first time, Tehran only pretended to fight Israel and the United States so it could compliment itself on winning a great victory. This round featured a theatrical attack on an American base in Qatar. The Islamic Republic politely and discreetly informed Doha and Washington of its plan to lob missiles at the base, which did minimal damage and caused no injuries or fatalities. Ignoring this symbolism, Tehran of course claimed that its “powerful armed forces … destroyed the US air base in Al-Udeid, Qatar.” In addition, Supreme Leader Ali Khamene’i announced that Israel “almost collapsed” under an Iranian barrage. Will the Iranian populace accept this blatant deceit or use it as a cudgel against their rulers?
12. Tehran attacked an ally
Qatar is the closest the Islamic Republic has to a friendly neighbor, but that did not stop the missiles from flying at it. A conspiracy theory holds that Doha consented to the operation to improve its standing among Americans, but that overestimates the importance of U.S. opinion. Tehran’s appeasement via flattering words (“This action does not pose any danger to our friendly and brotherly country, Qatar, and its noble people”) cannot undo the inherent aggression, which Qatar “strongly” condemned and called a “flagrant violation” of its sovereignty. The New York Times calls this attack “a nightmare come true” for Iran’s rich and vulnerable neighbors. How deeply will this attack sour relations with them?
Those twelve days should have repercussions long into the future.
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Daniel Pipes (DanielPipes.org, @DanielPipes) is founder of the Middle East Forum and author of Israel Victory: How Zionists Win Acceptance and Palestinians Get Liberated (Wicked Son).
Israel’s lack of a coherent strategy in Gaza is truly astounding and disturbing.
Instead of conquering and securing zones, it has engaged in wack-a-mole, running around like a chicken with its head cut off.
From the outset, this war has not been fought with the single minded vigor to smash and crush the enemy like maggots. Too much time was spent worrying about supplies for the genocidal maniacs who inhabit Gaza.
As Machiavelli stated, it’s better to be feared than loved, and Israel spends too much time chasing the latter.
Even winning this war, at this point, is a complete and utter failure.
Israel is not at war with Hamas in Gaza. It’s just an eradication mission. I’d write that it’s like exterminating rats but as bad as rats are, they aren’t nearly as contemptible, weak and incompetent as Psuedostinians. Rats are actually quite clever and difficult to eradicate. The Paleosimians are just targets.
“Israel’s lack of a coherent strategy in Gaza is truly astounding and disturbing.” … “Even winning this war, at this point, is a complete and utter failure.”
Why don’t you put you in charge ?
You have absolutely not considered the why and how of the highly complex war against Hamas in Gaza.
The war in Gaza is a multidimensional puzzle:
Militarily, it is an urban nightmare.
Politically, there is no viable post-war plan.
Diplomatically, Israel is under global scrutiny.
Strategically, the enemy is entrenched, invisible, cynical, and replaceable.
Psychologically, Hamas uses terror, human shields, and the image of victimhood to turn the forces against themselves.
Eradicating an ideological movement rooted in the population, protected by tunnels, and connected to regional networks cannot be accomplished in a few weeks.
It takes time because:
Civilian casualties must be minimized,
Highly protected targets must be destroyed,
Diplomatic pressure must be managed,
And the war must not spread (to Lebanon, the West Bank, Iran, etc.).
— “We are fighting a terrorist enemy that hides behind civilians, fires from hospitals, and stores its weapons in schools. Every military operation is as much a moral dilemma as it is a tactical act.” — General Benny Gantz
Israel is fighting to eliminate hamass with BOTH hands tied behind their backs! Sure they’ve bombed BUILDINGS and have killed many hamasses, but they’ve not used the level of force as seen in Iran! The main issue with eliminating hamass is doing it without eliminating masses of “Palestinians”! I like the idea of just moving all of them OUT of Gaza and returning it to Israel – AFTER they have cleared the battlefield of the hamass human shields and obliterated the ideology of hatred infesting that area! If nothing else, relocate all the “Palestinians” to Egypt’s border and build that “outdoor prison” the left relishes!!
Gaza, unlike Iran, holds Israeli hostages. So the Israeli strategy in Gaza at this point is not to conquer Gaza, but apply a maximum military pressure to force Hamas to negotiate and release the hostages. Maybe it will change in the upcoming weeks since Hamas refuses to negotiate unless the war ends, leaving it in power. Or maybe Netanyahu will be forced to accept a bad deal and end the war under international and domestic pressure.
LOL… You have proven the fact that you are an idiot in one comment!
There were numerous other such comments.
Everything you wrote is a Hamas lie. Go fuck yourself, you jihadi fucktard. Assuming you can.
You have ready proven what a jewhater you are over and over again, yet you try to gloss it over by claiming what an American patriot you are. All you are is a lying two bit Muslim. Just like that P.O.S, NYC mayoral candidate MamiWho’sYourDaddy.
You are just repeating jihadist and left-wing propaganda tropes. Guerilla wars are difficult to fight, and Israel has done more than almost any other country (e.g., the US in Viet Nam) to avoid civilian casualties.
Good questions.
There’s only one group that will change Iran and that’s the Iranians themselves.
Trumps actions might help but it could hinder.
“There’s only one group that will change Iran and that’s the Iranians themselves.”
With A Little Help From My Friends.
Do you think non-Nazi Germans alone could have gotten rid of the Nazis?
Can you tell me how the unarmed anti-mullah Iranians are going to do it?
You must have a miracle in your pocket.
When you have a rifle in front of you held by a torturer, you no longer think the same way.
The mullahs’ regime in Iran has imposed strict regulations, if not a near-total ban, on the possession of firearms by civilians, precisely to prevent the population from defending itself or resisting.
Highly repressive laws
Possessing a weapon illegally is punishable by several years in prison, or even the death penalty if the weapon is used against regime agents.
Arms trafficking, even on a small scale, is considered a serious crime and a threat to national security.
Do I think the Germans could have overthrown the Nazis, yes. All they had to do was say no.
All the Iranian people need to do is say no, but they don’t, they, like Muslims everywhere, wander around with pictures of their religious leaders.
The non-Israel world never ‘allows’ victory for Israel. So ceasefires replace victory. Mr. Pipes refers to the ‘67 war as Israel‘s ‘victory’; yes, it was; but the ‘67 war ended in a UN imposed ceasefire, not victory as Israel would have defined it. The conditions of that ‘ceasefire’ imposed on Israel, the dos and the don’ts, guaranteed continued war against Israel and the multi-front war of today. The non-Israel world always imposes a ‘redo’, a ‘reset’. It’s a game to all but Israel. A sadistic game with sadistic rules.
Israel was on its way to meaningful victory against Iran; but Trump, even though his strong support of Israel is clearly, resoundingly more than any other American President since the modern founding of the Jewish State, was given an opportunity for success, threw his weight around, imposed a ceasefire on Israel, and claimed victory for America.
The non-Israel world decided from the get go that Israel would not be ‘allowed’ to win the Gaza war.
So I do not agree with Mr. Pipes that the Gaza war is a failure for Israel.
On the contrary, it is yet another moral failure for the non-Israel world.
What kind of fear feeds this failure?
Seeing as how Iran seems to be supplying sophisticated drones to a bunch of countries, from what I read, wonder if Israel could identify and take out those manufacturing facilities, and thus help shorten conflicts elsewhere?
“The White House cowboy succeeded”
You can’t help it… What do you have against cowboys in the first place?
Are you the one talking about Trump? : “boorish, selfish, puerile and repulsive character, combined with his proudful ignorance, his off‑the‑cuff policymaking, and his neo‑fascist tendencies”
Is that how you see cowboys?
“the most divisive and scary of any serious presidential candidate in American history”
“nothing is as important as resisting and defeating Donald Trump and the neo-fascist virus he wishes to bring to the White House.»
I think you have a big complex… and instead of dealing with your big complex, you preferred to shit on Trump, and even today you can’t help but project your delusion onto him “egoùaniac”. This type of projection comes from a perversion of the mind. Do you know that? Maybe you’re the one who’s egomaniac. I see something egomaniacal in the way you talk about Trump.
You have to develop an ego when you’re faced with so many morons like yourself who constantly attack you and put you down.
The psychiatrization of individuals… You’re not a psychiatrist. You claim that Trump suffers from a serious personality disorder..
Have you seen many egomaniacs surrounded by such intelligent people?
“Trump apparently solo extemporizing his own rules, strategies, and communications,”
So, in fact, you’re implicitly saying that Trump is surrounded by morons, idiots who are so stupid they can’t influence Trump in any way?
He’s the one improvising ?
You’re way off base. He doesn’t improvise anything at all.
You have an inferiority complex, in my opinion. And you did a lot of harm to the cause.
Whack a mole? How would you deal with those cockaroaches? Remember Israel had too many Lefties calling the shots and we got 10/7. No more
13. The USA has now changed the perception of the muslim states. Instead of the “police action” cowardice of Truman and every president since, we have now shown the will to attack to win. This causes a complete rethinking of strategy for the world.
While I strongly support President Trump’s attacks on Iran’s nuclear capability, he did not attack to win. The Ayatollah and his government are still in power, and assassinating dissenters and those who were found or suspected of helping Israel. This will certainly intimidate the Iranian people from overthrowing the mullocracy. Since they haven’t used a nuclear weapon yet, all of the other nefarious activity emanating from Iran could still continue. The entire West, including, unfortunately, President Trump, refuses to grasp the Muslim mind, especially the apocalyptic Shi’ite theology. Our Western liberal values of equity and moral equivalence are being used to conquer us, and we’re too stupid to see it.
Regarding point 9: You are forgetting the Egyptian Army, which is much more powerful than necessary unless they intend to fight the “enemy to the north” (Israel) as they have stated in government propaganda. They have also dug transit tunnels under the Suez Canal, limiting it’s role as a barrier to advancing more forces into Sinai.
Things change fast in the ME, and this should not be ignored
The difference between now and every other attacker Israel has dealt with in it’s 77 year history is the tsunami of antisemitism that has become fashionable and vogue after 10-7-2023 – The satanic liberal CANCER that has spread globally. Indeed, this satanic liberal CANCER does not affect the IDF or MOSSAD and every other strategic and armed defense Israel has. Global antisemitism is shocking and is the chaff separating from the wheat. We take sides. Are we wheat or are we chaff. And then we enjoy or suffer the consequences.
Revelation 6:16 And said to the mountains and rocks, Fall on us, and hide us from the face of him that sitteth on the throne, and from the wrath of the Lamb:
Point 1. is pukeworthy. To the expert class, President’s failure to cater to them is unforgivable. Thus, no praise for him is sneerless.
Mr. Pipes, thanks for an excellent article. As I read it, I was thinking that the author is unusually perceptive, and when I saw it was Daniel Pipes, I thought to myself “of course.”
One of the ways that Israel can defeat Hamas is to remove the subsidization they receive from terrorists in Iran, the United Nations, and USAID.
Israel has done brilliantly with the traditional military aspects of the war, but they can do better with propaganda and framing the issue in public policy debates. Warfare always has had an essential psychological and propaganda element, but it has increased since Mao’s conquest of China and the use of fourth generation warfare in Viet Nam, Iraq, and elsewhere. American supporters of Israel need to view the propaganda that Islamist and communists have successfully been propagating in the United States and around the world as a military tactic. The antisemitic trope that the military response in Gaza is “genocide” is an example, as is jihadist influence in the American media, universities, and the Democratic Party. The same is true globally.
The Zionist community in America should begin to view education and media and central columns and develop strategies to unseat left-wing and antisemitic influence.