The Ukraine mess is daily looking more like the Spanish Civil War of 1936 to 1939, a meat grinder that took 500,000 lives. That three-year conflict became a savage proxy war and prelude for the belligerents of World War II.
The Ukraine battlefield is proving to be a similar laboratory of death. New lethal weaponry and tactics are introduced, modified – and always improved – from drones to guided missiles to internet-fed artillery.
Likewise, a similar pre-global war lineup of the eventual adversaries is emerging in preview of a much larger, much scarier war to come.
The first mission of Ukraine, the aggrieved victim of a peremptory Russian attack, was simple survival.
But now that it has been armed to the teeth and its soldiers proved far more capable and heroic than Putin’s once-feared Russia, Kyiv now seeks to push back Russians to their 2014 Ukrainian acquired borders.
Next President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that the third stage will be to eject every Russian from 2013 Ukraine. He promises to reabsorb both the Crimea and the Donbas.
That is an ambitious goal that might require preemptive attacks inside Russia and on the Black Sea.
To accomplish the last two missions, Zelenskyy needs a blank check of support from a United States that can neither control its own borders nor maintain its critical infrastructure and is $33 trillion in debt.
Americans are not only to supply the money and arms to fuel Zelenskyy’s counteroffensives, but to sign onto a dangerous anti-Russian agenda that is not necessarily synonymous with one that is in the best interests of the United States.
As far as Russia goes, Vladimir Putin knows his attack was a costly mistake. It was predicated on the assumption that an appeasing, doddering Biden and a U.S. military humiliated in Afghanistan would always remain passive.
Yet Putin still believes that his blunder will not have been a fatal one if he can still destroy much of Eastern Ukraine, institutionalize what he gained in 2014, fracture NATO, propagandize the war as an existential cause of saving Mother Russia from a corrupt West, and reconfigure a new alliance with China, Iran, North Korea, and perhaps Turkey and India.
As far as the United States goes, the Biden Administration sees America’s interest as largely defined by a proxy war to defang Russia. To paraphrase Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, America will pour limitless arms into Ukraine to so weaken Russia that it will have to stay within its current borders.
Washington blithely dismisses all of Putin’s existential threats as empty nuclear saber-rattling – on the Pentagon’s assurance that wounded, cornered, and growling tigers can always be assumed to remain predictably docile.
Biden, whose family influence-peddled with Kyiv for a decade, has radically reversed his initial course. No longer is Biden offering a free ride out of Dodge for Zelenskyy or dismissing any worry over a “minor” Russian invasion.
Biden instead now sees saving Ukraine and punishing Russia as his one shot at a redeeming accomplishment for an otherwise failed administration.
The once-pacifist American Left has embraced Ukraine as its “I told you so” proof that Putin was really the monster that it could not find guilty in its various Russian collusion concoctions and laptop disinformation hoaxes.
The NATO nations are acting uncharacteristically defiant given the war is on their borders. They rightly fear a victorious Putin would be vengeful and not satiated.
Yet their “you go first” shipment of hodgepodge weapons to Ukraine, as well as their embarrassment over their past suicidal energy polices and slow-motion disarmament, remind us that Europeans in NATO before the war could not keep the Russians out, the Americans in, or the Germans down.
China believes it can be the real winner of the war. Its rivals and enemies are weakened the longer the war continues. The West is depleting its arsenals. It is tiring of the cost. Rival Russia is bleeding, selling Beijing cheap oil and begging for its weapons.
Neither Europe nor America, China believes, will want to repeat another proxy war – say, one over Taiwan – against a nuclear power with far more leverage over the West and far greater wherewithal on the battlefield.
Iran is selling drones to Russia. Tehran expects a desperate Putin to sell it all the enriched uranium it needs, prevent a preemptive strike on Tehran, and end Moscow’s Syrian wink-and-nod policy with Israel.
India, like Turkey, likes newfound cheap Russian oil. It feels a proximate Russia and China are better entertained than a distant and provocative, but increasingly internally divided and weakened, United States.
Turkey is suddenly booming with cheap oil and a big arms appetite from Russia. It feels rich and illiberal China and Russia both fear Turkey’s export of Islamism and seem better allies than the loud-talking but declining West.
North Korea sees only positives in Western distraction in Ukraine. It counts that its nuclear recklessness is seen as a valuable irritant by both Russia and China.
The longer this preview war goes on, the surer will follow the nightmarish main attraction.
Thank you, VDH, for your lucid analysis of this increasingly frightening war. But what can done to stop it before de-escalation is no longer possible?
Barry Spinello says
Activate Trump. How? I don’t know. Open to suggestions.
Well, realization for starters. These sites are mining collective raw information, e.g., participant responses to articles and turning them into intelligence. For example, books and revenue enhancing enterprises.
What could have stopped the flood in Noah’s time?
Jeff Bargholz says
Hoover Dam? The little Dutch boy?
Mo de Profit says
Russia wants to “reconfigure a new alliance with China, Iran, North Korea, and perhaps Turkey and India.”
Turkey is a member of NATO but it was recognised around five years ago that they could become an enemy, and NATO carried out an exercise based on this, they tweeted it and all hell broke loose when Erdagon heard about it.
The military industrial complex is benefiting enormously from this, just like the World pHarma Organisation benefited enormously from convid.
Why wasn’t everyone in the west screaming and hollering when Ukraine was shelling the Donbas which is primarily a Russian population. Didn’t hear a peep here in the US. Why weren’t Americans screaming when the US orchestrated a coup in Ukraine in 2014 replacing a duly elected president friendly towards Russia to replace him with one friendly towards the west. Can you imagine that? Someone wanting to align with a nuclear power right next door. What about Putin approaching the US about joining NATO and being told to get lost. Didn’t hear anybody raising hell about that. And remember when the US gave Putin assurances that NATO would not push east and then turned around and did just that. Why has the US pushed so hard for Ukraine to join NATO when Putin made it very clear that it was absolutely unacceptable? What the hell is the US doing in Ukraine period? The neocon creeps in the US gov’t are using Ukraine as a proxy to try and stick it to Putin who they hate and stands athwart their plans. People are dying because of it. We have the Monroe doctrine but Russia can’t have the same? What Putin wanted was for Ukraine to simply remain neutral and not be part of NATO. Oh, and why did the US blow up the Nordstream pipeline? Now your gov’t is feeding billions of your dollars in military aid to the pervert/neo nazi Zelensky and his corrupt gov’t to keep this thing going when they have no chance of winning it. WHY?
Algorithmic Analyst says
Thanks VDH, interesting analysis.
Mac McKinney says
Ukraine is not capable of defeating Russia, despite 5 mobilizations and approaching 200 billion dollars in aid from both the US and Europe. Ukraine is currently gang-pressing 16-year olds on up to 60-year olds off the streets. Thanks to war propaganda we have come to believe that Russia is a second rate military power that will lose this war. But the only reason Ukraine has made any progress is because: 1) the Russians were spread too thin in the Kharkov region and Ukrainians, thanks to our satellite intelligence, were able to exploit this situation with a massive counter-offensive. The Russians, as is their habit, pulled back rather than let their outnumbered troops in the area be sacrificed; 2) in the Kherson region, the Russians pulled back on their own accord because the Ukrainians were daily bombarding a nearby dam, which, if collapsed, would have flooded their positions and cut off their exits. But now the Russians have tripled (at least) their troop strength and are conducting a merciless war of attrition that is eviscerating Ukrainian troop strength. Everyone calls it a “meat-grinder” strategy. Ukraine is more like a Puffer fish that is blowing up its body to gigantic proportions to pretend it is a monstrous war machine, but on the exhale it is a shattered country that would have collapsed months ago without massive Western support.
Floyd Looney says
Ukraine doesn’t want to defeat Russia. They want Russia to leave Ukraine.
And we don’t really want to help the Ukrainian people. Biden, all the Democrats and the Neocon Republicans like McConnell and Graham now openly say that this is about “regime change” in Russia and we won’t stop until Putin is gone??!! That, and blowing up the Nord Stream pipeline is a clear act of war against Russia and we are rapidly heading toward WWIII.
It’s about destroying re surging Christianity in Russia and stealing the vast natural resources of that country. It has been about that since the original Russian Revolution in 1917.
Jeff Bargholz says
The Ukraine is winning. That’s irrefutable.
The war is over,Ukraine has lost. One reason it is going slowly is Russia does NOT want the war to get out of Ukraine and become WW III. You forgot to add POLAND is training a 200,000
army that experts believe it wants to enter into Ukraine and conquer,under the deception of being a PEACEKEEPING force,
NORTHWEST Ukraine,the part that was part of Poland before 1945. Before at least 50% were Poles there,but that was
TWO generations AGO,now 100% are Ukrainian. It is Polish IMPERIALISM.
Floyd Looney says
Russian forces a year ago were 7km from the Presidential palace in Kyiv and now they are several hundred kilometers away. I’d say this is a good sign that Ukraine can fight pretty well.
You forgot to add the importance of honor given to literal SS NAZI Ukrainians in today’s Ukraine.
A) A Jewish news website TRIBUNE JUIVE,pro-Israel, FRENCH (can be translated using Google Translate),
published an article detailing ALL the monuments,plaques,statues in Ukraine
in HONOR,again, in honor,
of Ukrainians who had killed Jews and/or Poles during WW II.
First published in JANUARY 2021, one year BEFORE the war began.
( republished by them this JANUARY 2023)
B) BANDERA was included but also plaques in honor of SS soldiers (Ukrainians)and others who killed Jews,some are :
SS soldier Dmytro Paliiv (1896-1944),
Oleksa Babiy (1909-1944) ( participated in the killing of 33,000 Jews in BABI YAR,near KIEV),
Ivan Kedyulich (1912-1945)( also killed Jews in Babi Yar),
Oleksandr Lutskyi (1910-1946) ( SS ),etc,etc,etc
STATUES IN HONOR OF Roman Shukhevych (1907-1950)
Who was he? He was the Banderista leader responsible for the MASSACRE of 70,000-100,000
innocent Polish men,women and children in the region called VOLYN ( formerly part of Poland,in orthwest Ukraine). Ethnic cleansing.
Here is the article,in FRENCH,in February 2023,this month:
Leon Mintz says
Forward. Nazi collaborator monuments in Ukraine
By Lev Golinkin
Please notice that only pictures of the main monuments are in this article. Multiple links point to different monuments that grow like toadstools (поганки) in Ukraine.
Elliott Alhadeff says
Zelensky is Jewish. Therefore …. (how relevant is Ukranian Jew-hatred today?)
You dont recognize a fig leaf when you see one? Zelensky is a fig-leaf, a patsy and dopey clown with a typically Jewish assimilationist schtick.
Leon Mintz says
The Times of Israel blog by Vladislav Davidzon: “The war that turned Volodymyr Zelensky into a Ukrainian Jew.”
Davidzon is a self-identified Judeo-Banderite.:)
Daniel L. Levy says
TJ is my very own Jewish community’s periodical, and I’ve been a reader ever since I could read. Its website seems to have removed the article, which makes sense if you place it in the context of current events. I trust the editorial board to have done the right thing, not for evading potential controversy, but for not fueling the current evil’s propaganda machine with a not-really-necessary reminder of a past evil.
Nobody forgot Babiy Yar, but Bucha and Irpin are not likely to be forgotten anytime soon either!
Regarding EUROPE,because of the Globalist US government’s actions,it pays 4 TIMES more for gas(from the US )
than when it was buying Russian gas.
A) In GERMANY( the heart,center,base of the EU’s economy) industry is paying 40% MORE in electricity cost. Why only 40% and not 4 times more?
B) Because of SUBSIDIES. Europe has spent 800 BILLION euros in subsidies to keep electricity cost lower.
C) Who will pay for the subsidies?
The people,via HIGHER TAXES. It s over for Europe.
D) ALL agree that when,not if,but when, Germany falls economically, it is the economic COLLAPSE of Europe.
Like yesterday TRUMP came out with a video,his own title:
“STOPPING the WARMONGERS and GLOBALISTS”
I liked it,there he DENOUNCES none other than NULAND as being responsible for the war in Ukraine.
And yesterday ELON MUSK tweeted:
“NOBODY is pushing this war more than NULAND.”
The US blew up the pipeline to keep Germany and the rest of Western Europe from aligning itself too closely to Russia. So now the US can sell its nat gas to them. At a much higher price of course.
According to the GLOBALIST press 10 MILLION Ukrainian refugees but it is not exact. But millions later decided to RETURN so we have:
1.According to the UN ITSELF it is:
a. 3 million Ukrainians went to RUSSIA and are living,if they don’t have relatives, in at least 1,200 refugee centers ( free food, health care).
b. POLAND has 1.5 million.
c. GERMANY has 1 million.
d. The CZECH republic around 450,000 and lower and lower.
THE UK IS SO GENEROUS
It accepted 161,000 and 47,000 went to live with FAMILY. The rest
entered under the “Homes for Ukraine Scheme”. They went to live in a BRITISH HOME for at least 6 months. But the hosts were PAID by the UK government.
Now the government has decided to ELIMINATE that payment, and most Ukrainians will become HOMELESS,on the STREET.
A) Also omitted was that ZELENSKY, several months ago,more than 6 I think,passed a LAW that said any Ukrainian who received
HUMANITARIAN aid from RUSSIA, whether the government or Russian private organizations,
like FOOD and MEDICINE and CLOTHES,
would get 15 YEARS in PRISON.
B) Around the same time PUTIN signed a law that said ANY Ukrainian could very easily acquire Russian CITIZENSHIP. Why?
He knows soon Europe’s economy will COLLAPSE,become Third World. The law allows Ukrainians to have that option, to escape from a ruined Ukraine and rest of Europe.
Finally,the article also forgot to mention Ukraine’s army uses CIVILIANS as HUMAN SHIELDS.
1. That is a WAR CRIME, it is one reason why HAMAS and HIZBULLAH are considered to be terrorist organizations.
It has been admitted by AMNESTY International Ukraine does it.
2. In BAKHMUT there are 5,000 civilians. The Ukrainian army doesn’t let them out.
Russia had proposed an UNCONDITIONAL TRUCE for January 6th-7th, a CHRISTMAS truce (Eastern Orthodox),no more fighting,
and ANYBODY could LEAVE,100% guaranteed no attacks by Russia.
Zelensky said NO, knowing the 5,000 civilians would leave and be SAFE.
Onzeur Trante says
Smarter heads need to prevail to put an end to the lunacy of this war. Where are those heads? Nowhere to be found it appears, at least not in this Administration or the EU cabinets for that matter.
Certainly they aren’t iat 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. It has been widely reported that a proposed peace agreement was scuttled in March 2022, because both Biden and Boris Johnson refused to consider any agrerment that would leave Putin in power. And now, nearly a quarter million deaths later, here we are.
Correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t Putin ask for negotiations early on in the conflict but was brushed aside? Biden and company are criminals.
Floyd Looney says
Biden’s first reaction to the invasion was to recommend Zelensky flee and set up a government-in-exile. People seem to have forgotten that.
Una Salus says
Yea well, people that don’t have the stomach to prosecute wars should stay inconspicuous under their Athenian temples. OMG it’s WWIII!!!!!!?
Scarlet Pimpernel says
You are a brilliant mind, but wrong. There is no solution. Russia will keep attacking & Ukraine wants to survive as a people and Nation. Peace treaty? How? Russia will rearm and attack again. Tell me your brilliant solution.
Onzeur Trante says
Ukraine, i.e, our-hero Zelensky, should demand negotiations now while there is still a population and a country left to fight for. Ukraine will be nothing but a wasteland if the war continues on the path it’s on with support from the West “until the end, ” whatever that means. Senseless to continue the bloodshed and astronomical expense. For what? For Zelensky to be annointed the champion of democracy?
In WAR,the RATIO of CIVILIANS killed with respect to soldiers is 1 to 1.
A) For every soldier killed, 1 civilian. But RUSSIA has bent over backwards to diminish the number of civilians killed in the war zone,
where the BULLETS and BOMBS are striking.
B) It is estimated the number of civilians killed in 1 YEAR of war in Ukraine has been 7,000 to 8,000.
Zelensky says 20,000-30,000 but we know how reliable he is.
C) The number of UKRAINIAN soldiers killed is MINIMUM 150,000.
DOUG MACGREGOR (who has SOURCES inside the US government) has said the Ukrainian chief general ZALUZHNY has told
CIA chief BURNS the total Ukrainian dead is 257,000.
That means 250,000 soldiers dead.
D) Thus minimum the number of civilians killed,in a REGULAR war,should be 150,000 dead Ukrainian civilians,but it is not. Even 250,000.
In the TWO MONTHS after the NORMANDY invasion (1944) of France, 60,000
AMERICAN soldiers were killed. And the number of FRENCH CIVILIANS killed
because of their attacks, was……… 60,000 also. Ratio of 1 to 1.
Another factor,is that the Ukrainian army has used civilians as HUMAN SHIELDS ( a war crime )
and it seems MOST of the 8,000 civilians killed were because
the Ukrainian army INTENTIONALLY wanted them killed via that technique,
to use as PROPAGANDA to get support.. In the BEGINNING the Russian army did NOT know they were actually doing that,
and shelled at the places firing at them. Never thinking Zelensky (who has, according to the PANAMA PAPERS,
stolen around 800 MILLION dollars)
would kill his own citizens.
Putin asked for negotiations early on in the conflict but was brushed off by the US. I say the US because it’s the US that has instigated this war by it’s misguided policies.
Jeff Bargholz says
Trump could do it.
David Abercrombie says
Biden’s response demonstrates Tom Cotton’s thesis in “only The Strong”. Democrats always flinch when challenged then overcompensate with braggadocio. which, in the end insures escalation..
But, unlike the Spanish Civil War, this matter involves an invasion of a clearly and internationally recognized sovereign nation (witness the Budapest Memorandum) and parallels Hitler’s invasion of Poland. He should have been stopped then as Putin should have been stopped a year ago. As in the former case there will be the same hell to pay in the latter..
It is ironic that the Chinese bitch about us assisting Ukraine who is being invaded while it was we who came to the assistance of the Chinese, at a great deal greater cost of blood and treasure, to throw out the Japanese invaders only eighty some years ago.
” invasion of a clearly and internationally recognized sovereign nation (witness the Budapest Memorandum) and parallels Hitler’s invasion of Poland. ”
A) The BUDAPEST MEMORANDUM was signed by Russia and Ukraine and others in 1994.
There Russia agreed because the Ukrainian CONSTITUTION said Ukraine was NEUTRAL,meaning it would
NOT join NATO.
B) In 2008 Ukraine applied to JOIN NATO but was rejected. A violation of the Ukraine constitution.
C) In 2014 there was a coup d’etat in Ukraine effected by the Globalist Obama-Hillary government and they installed
the Nazi-loving Banderistas in power. They took OUT the neutral clause in the Ukrainian constitution.
No parallel with Hitler.
The SAME thing with MOLDOVA, their own CONSTITUTION, says Moldova is a NEUTRAL, yet
in VIOLATION of the consitutition, its president MAIA SANDU ,is applying
to JOIN NATO.
In APRIL 2022 Biden announced that from now on the US,the ONLY country in the world, has a STRIKE First with a Nuclear Arm Policy.
It is lunacy .Notice the progress in nuclear bomb REDUCTION since 1985,due to treaties:
A) In 1985: Soviet Union had 39,000 atomic bombs.
The US had 21,000.
B) In 2000 when PUTIN became president:
Russia: 21,500 bombs.
C) By 2014:
Russia: from 21,500 to 7,500 atomic bombs.
TODAY it is about:
Russia: 6,000 ( 1,500 LESS)
Paul Revere says
The invasion changed everything
David Abercrombie says
Russia signed to get control of all of Ukraine’s nukes which it got and when they signed they guaranteed Ukraine’s “sovereignty”. END OF STORY.
John Galt says
You seem to either have forgotten, or are unaware of, the Minsk agreements, which the U.S., and NATO have violated in every instance. No expansion of NATO, no offensive weapons installed in Ukraine, for instance. Then there was the coup orchestrated by Victoria Nuland in 2014 through our state department which overthrew an elected government favorable to Russia, and replaced by one favoring the U.S. and NATO, who then moved for membership in NATO. Russia was likewise further antagonized from the attacks on Russian-speaking Donbass by the Azov Battalion resulting in over 14,000 dead from 2014-2021. The German PM, Merkle, stated after the signing of the Minsk agreements that they were only intended to give Ukraine time to build their military, and would not be honored. Biden and NATO pushed Russia to invade, maybe to weaken them, or maybe for political purposes at home. Blowing up the Nordstream pipeline was an act of war, and Biden and Nuland had been rather giddy about the prospect before the act. As usual, they have continued to lie about that and everything else.
The satanic islamic loving Luciferian Globalists are feeding this war to raise the cost of livi8ng worldwide…
Just as America was behind the creation of the coronavirus and Microbot injecting vaccines…
The Global Reset is about creating a One World Islamic Economy…
The Luciferian islamic loving Globalists love War… it reduces populations…
The world is divided…
1) Those standing for Christ Jesus
2) Those doing the work for satan
But let’s look at this further…
Those for satan are divided further…
1) Those standing for satanic Sunni islam
2) Those standing for satanic Shiite islam
China, Russia and Iran are all for Shiite islam… which is why they are always painted s the bad guys of this world… and why they are always working together…
The rest of the world is for satanic Sunni islam… including Europe, The West & America…
BEWARE!!! America is not what you’ve been programmed to believe it is…
Make note: Those Uyghur muslims being persecuted, enslaved and tortured in China… are members of the Sunni sect of islam…
Ooooo I’ll make note…..top on the list of things to do today. Yes siree bobboroonie. Don’t worry bossman…… I’m on it.
Gettin’ my car now to take care of it. Now where’s my pad so I can make note of it. Oh I think I left it at my church………..
Peter Arnone says
I am hopeful, if not confident, that Vladimir Putin has the capacity (not Biden nor Zelensky) to come up with a strategy to avoid WWIII.
Leon Mintz says
“Vladimir Putin knows his attack was a costly mistake.”
I don’t know how anyone can know what Putin knows.
My personal guess is that Putin regrets that in 2014 he stopped in Crimea and Donbas.
Putin believed that he blocked NATO expansion like he blocked in Georgia in 2008.
In 2014, Ukraine didn’t have real army, but by 2022, with Trump help, they developed strong defenses.
Once again VDH you are spot on. Thank you for this piece.
Walter Sieruk says
It should be remembered that Vladimir Putin using the Russian military to invade and destroy Ukraine didn’t happen when President Trump was in the White House he kept Putin under control. If Donald Trump would still of President this Putin disaster in Ukraine would not have occurred. Now with Joe Biden masquerading as a genuine US President Putin has become totally out of control, irrational and very dangerous.
Russia is working with America to create a One World Islamic Economy!
America created the corona virus so it could get people to take the Microbot injecting Vaccines… turning humans into Transhumans… through AI (Artificial Intelligence)… the downloading of DATA into Humans…
Which is tied into IoT (Internet of things)…
“According to Lewis, “The Internet of Things, or IoT, is the integration of people, processes and technology with connectable devices and sensors to enable remote monitoring, status, manipulation and evaluation of trends of such devices.”
BEWARE!!! America is not what you’ve been programmed to think it is!
See… in Oct of 2021… long before the Ukraine War… Russia joined the WEF in taking a leading role in shaping the trajectory of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Part of the Forum’s global Network, the new Centre will bring together leading businesses, policy makers and members of civil society to co-design and pilot innovative approaches to technology governance.
How many of these mass shootings… rail derailments… airplane crashes… buildings blowing up… etc… are created by people that have taken the Microbot vaccines & boosters? And being manipulated by AI & IoT???
Walter Sieruk says
It would be good to remember when Donald Trump was President,he kept Vladimir Putin in his place. Now since Joe Biden has entered the Oval Office of White House, Putin has thrown off all restraints and has become very dangerous and deadly Ukraine.
Biden will only make this terrible situation even worse. For making things worse in the only Biden is able to do.
For Biden is a disaster for America, for Ukraine , for Russia and a disaster for the world.
Walter Sieruk says
Maybe that it could be that Joe Biden and his crew will deliberately use that terrible situation in Ukraine as an a chance to start a major war in order to declare martial law in the United States that would quickly fit into their Red/Green agenda to establish a Communist/ Sharia type tyranny in America ?
Of course ,this sounds alarmist and even far-fetched idea , nevertheless, no evil insidious scheme is beyond the sinister limits of the Biden regime.