|
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...
|
In the past few days, we’ve seen a number of political analysts come to a momentous conclusion. Actually, two momentous conclusions. The first is that it is unlikely anyone can catch former President Donald Trump in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. The second is that it is entirely possible Trump, having won the GOP nomination, could go on to win the general election and become President Trump again.
Yes, the analysts include all the necessary caveats — it’s early, the situation is unprecedented, anything can happen, etc. But still: Sober observers are suggesting it’s all over in the GOP primaries and game on in the general election. Their case was strengthened Monday morning with the release of a new New York Times poll showing Trump “leading his nearest challenger, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, by a landslide 37 percentage points nationally among the likely Republican primary electorate.” Thirty-seven points is big, big, big. Other national polls have shown Trump with similar leads in the Republican race. The most recent surveys included in the RealClearPolitics average of polls have Trump ahead of DeSantis by, going backward in time, 36, 43, 44, 40, 32, 29 and 25 points.
The first analysis comes from Politico with the headline, “A DeSantis come-from-behind win is looking vanishingly unlikely.” The report notes that, “Only once has the Republican polling leader in midsummer of the year before the election gone on to lose the party’s nomination.” That person was Rudy Giuliani, who led the 2008 GOP race all through 2007, with a lead that sometimes stretched to 14 points, only to fall apart when the actual voting began in 2008. At the same time, in 2007, the John McCain campaign imploded, ran out of money and rebooted, with McCain somehow going on to win the nomination.
That’s the model, pretty much the only model, for a DeSantis comeback. And remember, Giuliani led the GOP race, according to the RealClearPolitics average of national polls, until January 2008. In today’s terms, that would translate into Trump leading the GOP polls for five more months before fading. DeSantis, burdened by sinking polls and campaign difficulties, would then stage a McCain-style surge. It’s possible, maybe.
On the other hand, overcoming Giuliani’s 14-point lead was one thing — especially after Giuliani made the disastrous mistake of de-emphasizing the Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina contests to focus on Florida. Overcoming Trump’s 35-point lead in the RealClearPolitics average is quite another. “No candidate has ever blown a national polling lead even a third as large as Trump’s is today,” writes Politico. “A Trump collapse would be unprecedented. So, too, would a DeSantis turnaround.”
The second analysis is by CNN’s Harry Enten, who takes the Politico assessment a step further. “Trump is not only in a historically strong position for a nonincumbent to win the Republican nomination, but he is in a better position to win the general election than at any point during the 2020 cycle and almost at any point during the 2016 cycle,” Enten writes.
Enten suggests it is a little surprising that Trump is leading the Republican race, given everything that has happened. “What should arguably be more amazing,” he writes, “is that despite most Americans agreeing that Trump’s two indictments thus far were warranted, he remains competitive in a potential rematch with President Joe Biden.” Enten notes recent polls that show Trump evenly matched with Biden or even ahead of the sitting president. “To put that in perspective,” Enten continues, “Trump never led in a single national poll that met CNN’s standards for publication for the entirety of the 2020 campaign. Biden was up by high single digits in the late summer of 2019. Biden is up by maybe a point in the average of all 2024 polls today.”
It was as if the political world, after months of deep, deep skepticism that Trump could prevail in a general election, threw open a door and said: Wow, Trump could win! The New York Times’ Jonathan Swan, who has reported extensively on Trump’s policy plans should he win the presidency again, tweeted, “I can’t tell you how many otherwise smart people have chastised us for going deep on what Trump and his allies plan for 2025 because ‘he can’t win a general election.’ Pure wishcasting.”
Indeed it is. Of course, it’s time to repeat the caveats. The biggest caution is that this situation really is totally unprecedented. First, there has not been in living memory a former president who made a serious bid to win back the White House. Second, there has not been such a candidate who has run while facing multiple indictments, one of which is from the administration he seeks to defeat. By the end of next month, Trump could be facing four — not one, not two, not three, but four — indictments. So far, the charges have not only not lowered his poll ratings; they have actually raised them. But that could change when the reality of Trump’s trials arrives. Or maybe it won’t.
What is entirely predictable is that if Trump were able to win the nomination and then the presidency again, the resistance that would result would make the Resistance of 2017-2021 seem sedate by comparison. “A Trump election in 2024 quiets nothing,” the former Republican-turned-Resistance writer David Frum tweeted recently. “It’s a formula for huge, indefinite, unlimited political crisis, more impeachments. Trump cannot ‘win’ his legal battles. He will only convulse the country in his effort to save himself.”
Win back the White House ? He didn’t lose it in the first place except to egregious ELECTION FRAUD that stank to high heaven ; nor did Kari Lake lose that Governor’s race in Arizona in 2022
Trump should already be on his second term , but this is all a moot point as it’s clear the Radical Dems will never allow TRump or any other GOP candidate to win in 2024 .
Talking about Trump winning in 2024 is just a fantasy as democracy died in November 2020
Just before the 2022 elections in Arizona, why did Biden say on national tV that ”We’d have to be patient for the results ” ? He knew that the fix was in and that the Dem fraud relied upon a delay in counting votes over a few days to see just how many of those fraudulent mail in votes they actually needed ,This is the future of every important election , insomuch, a long delay in counting that results in a close Dem victory ..EVERY..SINGLE..TIME !
Thats right, President Trump won the 2020 election, and the Rinos wouldn’t go after the election fraud in their own states. The American people have been mislead by an illegitimate regime. The real facts on the election fraud have been subdued and not allowed to be presented to Judges who stand for law and order.
At this juncture in history, no one with a lick of sense believes any poll, statistic, or claim that spews from the liars club media and its shills. Articles like this begin with bogus claims and blather on from there. What is known without a doubt is that elections are a sham riddled with fraud. Trump very likely won the last election. FJB is a usurper put in place by a tyrannical Derp State that continues its unjust persecutions against Trump and many others. And so, people everywhere absolutely disgusted with the mindboggling corruption they see unfolding around them will cast a protest vote for Trump in a sham election just to stick their middle fingers in the eyes of our criminal government.
The indictments clearly helps Trump. But that’s what the Dems want … to help him get the nomination because they believe they can beat him again just like they did in 2020 (read that carefully!)
Trump has lost the moderates. The faithful will rally but he can’t win the states he needs. The Dems want him to get the nomination.
You are dreaming about him “losing the moderates”….He’s been “losing the moderates” since 2016, but he just hasn’t been losing. The only “moderates”left are people dumb enough to believe the horseship the media is blowing out of their ashes. And the mental gymnastics required to accomplish said “belief” that is getting too difficult even for half-wits.
Please stopped spreading the dreary fog that the enemy is producing. Trump crushed it in 2020, but it was not yet known how to defeat the steal. If he isn’t assassinated (which some find terrifyingly likely) his victory will look very much like Reagan’s greatest win.
Many more will turn toward him in desperation and hope. His percentage in the minorities and among women will grow enough to grieve the most ardent of communists and turnout of Patriotic Americans will hit historical highs.
” “What should arguably be more amazing,” he writes, “is that despite most Americans agreeing that Trump’s two indictments thus far were warranted,”
What? How many people do you know believe the indictments were warranted? As for myself, I havnt met one person as of yet. CNN’s Harry Enten is making it up as he goes. He actually thinks he is planting seeds in peoples minds. The idiot has no problem with self esteem.
David Frum tweeted recently. “It’s a formula for huge, indefinite, unlimited political crisis, more impeachments. Trump cannot ‘win’ his legal battles. He will only convulse the country in his effort to save himself.”
Im sure this Frum guy only says this based on a deeeeeep concern for the country. These people are sickening.
Frum is a known never-Trumper.
Trump “;will convulse” the country writes David Frum and quotes Byron York above.
The Democrats created the fiasco that we are now witnessing in 2016 and again in 2020. Let’s not forget that.
Just like they create hell wherever they rule, ie: San Francisco, LA, New York, Chicago, Detroit, Baltimore, Philadelphia, Portland and even in the city I was born, Charlotte, NC, they are in power.
The American people have seen enough Swamp Corruption to last a life time! no matter all their scheming, these elites and oligarchs haven’t succeeded in demonizing President Trump. The American people are not the Europeans and aren’t easily swayed or influenced by power grabs, foreign governments, and false propaganda. The Swamp has actually exposed itself.
Masses of Americans are starting to wake up to the bottomless pit of corruption that is plaguing their government. Sadly, even if Trump got 90% of all the votes across the land, the Dems will find a way to cheat, lie and steal, to make damn sure the GOP never gets power again. What used to be a proud country has become one of the most corrupt on the planet. Sad.
POLITICS IS A DIRTY WORD!!!!!!! AT LEAST THAT WHAT IT HAS BECOME????? SINCE THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION TOO IT ON…..THE CROOKEDNESS HAS “ESCALATED BEYOND RECOGNITION”!!!!
THIS IS AMERICA 2023!!!!! OUR COUNTRY IS SUPPOSE TO HAVE PROCEEDED TO A HIGHER LEVEL OF EVERYTHING!!!!!! INSTEAD…..WE ARE STILL AT WAR…….GREED/HATRED HAVE TAKEN OVER AND THE ABUSE OF POWER IS DISGUSTING!!!!!!!!!! THE WORLD DOES NOT LOOK TO US AS A LEADING NATION ANY MORE!!!!!! INSTEAD THEY ARE LAUGHING AT WHAT WE HAVE BECOME!!!!!!
YOU WONDER WHY PEOPLE DO NOT BELIEVE THIS COUNTRY IS THE COUNTRY OF “FREEDOM”!!!!
PEOPLE NEED TO PUT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE FIRST…….NOT THE SWAMP!!!!!!!! PEOPLE WERE “ELECTED” TO MAKE THIS COUNTRY THE BEST!!!!!! INSTEAD THE PEOPLE WHO ARE ELECTED WORK FOR THEIRSELF AND HOW MUCH THEY CAN GET AND IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE HOW THAT IS DONE AS LONG AS THEY COME OUT WITH THE CHERRY ON THE TOP!!!!!!! SOOO SAD!!!
And yes, Trump WILL win!
Let’s hope he does the right thing when re-elected.
The country has contracted a disease called Biden
Trump is the cure
Those who accept emissions from the current federal government are either addled or in on the grift. President Trump’s bump in the road to perdition just alerted the denizens of the District of Corruption and their paymasters to the perils posed to their plans by the remaining adherents to America’s founding principles. Pray that our republic may be restored.
“is that despite most Americans agreeing that Trump’s two indictments thus far were warranted, he remains competitive in a potential rematch with President Joe Biden.” Consider the source of this quote, cnn has their head so far buried you know where, that they cannot even see the light of day
Wait, most Americans see indictments as warranted?!! Exactly which Americans are those? Polled in DC or in the offices of the New York Times maybe?
You do know what site this is? ……not National Review.
No way – they would assasinate him first.
Trump probably would win if the election was fair.
One thing about the indictments: historically Americans have rooted for the underdog quite often. Especially under dubious indictments.
He won in 2020 but with Covid and dragging the count out until Biden took the lead and people loading drop boxes in the middle of the night, you will never convince me it was not totally stolen. Anyone with a working brain knows it whether they admit it or not.
And that’s one of the reasons they’ve indicted him.
I truly believe, though, that if they can’t put him prison, and they WILL do whatever it takes, they’ll assassinate him.
I hope he has good security.
In keeping with our new status as a third world country, “Liberation” leaders are often elected by the people only after serving a term in jail. Nelson Mandela comes to mind and there are others. The frightening part is that once in jail, the Democrat Marxists will gleefully announce Trump’s death as a “suicide.” Understand…..this Deep State crowd, led by Obama, Killery, and Soros will easily slip into blatant homicide as easily as putting on a shirt…with no thought whatsoever as to any silly thing like consequences. This bunch have actually given treason a bad name. Once they’ve decided (probably over breakfast) to begin their MAGA Patriot killing spree, they are not going to stop. By the way, what did happen to Obama’s chef? How did Obama get the black eye? Lover’s spat? We’ll never know.
Something President Trump has learned, through government experience, in his not so distant past, is to use his trademark phrase once elected, to all unelected and treasonous officials, democrat or republican, “Your fired!”
I suspect he’s not quite as trusting as in the past. Perhaps even shock people by hiring Robert Kennedy.
Liberals are aa bit like the person in a Far Side Comic walking down the strps with tray for of Test Tube baies and about to step on the Roller skate