Highly unlikely folks, and you can take that to the bank. Don’t ask which bank. That’s just the malarkey talking.
But here are two narratives. Tell me which one sounds more plausible
“Even the Taliban are Surprised at How Fast They’re Advancing” – NBC News
“It is not inevitable,” he said, later adding: “The likelihood that there’s going to be a Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.” – Politico
Highly unlikely. You heard it here second.
“It is not inevitable,” he said, later adding: “The likelihood that there’s going to be a Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely.”
It’s not inevitable. It’s highly unlikely. Two very different ideas.
How inevitable and unlikely is it?
Since May 1, days after President Joe Biden announced the withdrawal of U.S. troops, the Taliban have captured 69 of the country’s 407 districts, including territory in northern provinces once seen as off-limits for the insurgency and a stronghold for the government, according to Bill Roggio, editor of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies’ Long War Journal. The Taliban now hold 142 districts, and are fighting for control of about 170 more.
But the current numbers are actually 195.
In all, the Taliban currently controls 195 districts and contests another 129 districts, according to the real time assessments by FDD’s Long War Journal.
So highly unlikely.
Biden also denied reports of a U.S. intelligence assessment saying the government in Kabul could be toppled in as little as six months after the withdrawal.
Six months sounds generous.
Meanwhile, Biden is leaving behind six hundred soldiers and a whole bunch of diplomats in Kabul because he’s itching to recreate Saigon.
But it’s “highly unlikely” that will happen.