In previous articles and posts I made the case that this is by no stretch of the imagination World War 3. Despite Putin’s saber rattling, this is an attempt by Russia to reclaim another vital chunk of its former empire and the Soviet Union.

It may be more grandiose, but still limited.

This counterpoint contemplates another possibility. Russian military doctrine thrives on the maskirovka. The obvious manifestation of this came when the Russian regime insisted repeatedly it was not about to invade Ukraine, right before it invaded Ukraine. Observers have noted Russia’s stumbling military tactics in the invasion, particularly the lack of proper air power deployment.

It’s inconceivable that the Ukrainian air force should be operating at all at this late date, and yet it is.

In the first scenario what we’re seeing is Russian military incompetence. There is certainly plenty of precedent for Russian military incompetence. It’s been quite a while since the Russians have fought a major war against any kind of conventional military opposition. Like us they’ve gotten used to fighting in guerilla wars and in small scale conflicts.

In the second scenario however the invasion of the Ukraine is only bait for a larger trap. The goal was to draw the Europeans into the conflict in order to carve up as much of Eastern Europe, particularly the Baltic republics, as possible. In other words, this war is actually much bigger than it looks. And Putin is prolonging the fighting in the Ukraine as a vehicle for drawing the Europeans into the conflict. While the Biden Administration talks tough, and Western Europe antes up, ultimately Eastern Europe will pay the price. In this scenario Putin is playing for all the chips and reserving air power for the full war that he expects to come.

Is that possible? It’s not impossible, though I don’t think that’s what’s going on. But if so, then Putin is indeed playing a much bigger gamble, one that would actually bring potentially nuclear armed countries into conflict with each other. I stand by my previous common sense assertion that the United States will not be one of those countries.

Whatever Putin’s plan is, he correctly assumed that there was no way that Biden would actually be drawn into any kind of military conflict. And, despite some silly rhetoric from various media types and elected officials, that is still the case. Can there be a World War 3 without the United States? I don’t think so, but if it is to be the case then this is how we may end up finding out.