Disney’s summer is starting to look worse

After Captain America and Snow White bombed, Disney is only tracking Thunderbolts for a $75M domestic opening weekend.

Bombs come in threes.

That’s very poor for a tentpole movie, let alone a Marvel entry. Disney keeps talking about a $175M global release and talking down the size of the budget (which does not account for the often larger promotional budget) in the hopes of lowering expectations. And the Hollywood press is mostly buying it.

But this is not a good sign. At all.

Disney really doesn’t expect the latest Marvel movie to do well. It’s now in the business of spinning failures like Captain America: Brave New World as moderate successes.

Next up comes Thunderbolts. And if its Fantastic Four Reboot isn’t a hit, Disney’s summer is done. And with it a big chunk of its financial viability. Disney’s business model rests on turning IPs into franchises. And those franchises have been growing weaker. If the business model of IP slop fails, so does Disney.