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Saudi Arabia officially put out a statement harshly critical of Israel’s air strikes on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities.
But what do the Saudis actually think? Follow the oil.
Israel’s sudden attack on Iran has threatened to disrupt oil supplies in the Middle East, placing the Opec+ cartel’s recent decision to increase crude production into the spotlight.
The Saudi Arabia-led producer group has surprised the oil market this year by fast-tracking the return of idled production even as crude prices fell. It has prompted speculation that the cartel was responding to White House pressure to boost output ahead of a confrontation with Iran.
If the Saudis really wanted to force a rapid end to the war, they would be doing what they have done in the past, which is cut production. And had they wanted to really pressure Trump ahead of a possible confrontation with Iran, they would have refused to boost production.
Oil production is still their best weapon. Boosting oil production provides a cushion ahead of a showdown with Iran.
That is not to say that the Saudis are America’s friend, let alone Israel’s friend, but they are happy enough with a scenario in which Iran’s capabilities get rolled back, without having to get directly involved or take any risks.
Forget what they say, watch what they pump.
Agreed.
The Abraham Accords are anti-Iranian at heart.
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I am perhaps optimistic in believing that the Saudis see a difference between a middle eastern nation which HAS nukes for protection of its citizens and a middle eastern nation which BRANDISHES nukes it doesn’t need for protecting its citzens.
In 2017 Trump brought the Saudis and Israel to a peace agreement. The Saudis are afraid of Iran getting nuclear capability. They let Israel fly over their air space in a direct approach to Iran instead of making Israel fly the miles around Saudi Arabia to reach Iran. Saudi Arabia is running out of oil. The US is the biggest producer of oil, natural gas and coal in the world.. When Joetato became Prez that was the first thing he stopped.
Exactly. I believe Israel didn’t strike Iranian oil targets in the first wave as a favor to Trump-who requested it as a favor to China. If Iranian oil shipments do end up getting disrupted Russia stands to benefit and will with the price of oil spiking in any case. It’s hard to see Iran doing anything but capitulating or completely self-immolating.
Good analysis. They have to say whatever keeps their subjects docile.