The Good: We have divided government. Since Democrats no longer control Congress, they can’t bankrupt America quite so fast!
The Bad: Prediction markets, which I touted as the best guide to elections, didn’t do so well. Yes, they correctly said Republicans would take the House, but they’d also predicted Republicans would take the Senate. Polls and statistical modelers like Nate Silver did a bit better this time. They also said Republicans would win both, but they gave them only a slight edge.
At this moment, Republicans have (according to ElectionBettingOdds.com, the site Maxim Lott created that tracks election betting around the world) a 19% chance of winning the Senate.
Nineteen percent isn’t zero; they could still win the Senate, but Republicans don’t have the 60-70% chance that bettors gave them in recent weeks.
The Good: Bettors at least adjust their predictions quickly.
On Tuesday night, while clods on TV still said “Democrats and Republicans battle for control of the House (CBS),” those of us who follow the betting already knew that Republicans would win the House.
Historically, bettors have a great track record. Across 730 candidate chances we’ve tracked, when something is expected to happen 70% of the time, it actually happens about 70% of the time.
That’s because people with money on the line try harder than pundits to be right. They also adjust quickly when they see they’ve made a mistake.
At 8:23 p.m., with just 12% of the New Hampshire vote counted, bettors gave Democrat Maggie Hassan more than a 90% chance of winning the Senate seat, up from 63% earlier in the day. You wouldn’t have noticed that shift watching TV. The AP didn’t call the race until 11:39 p.m.
Bettors also failed to predict Trump’s win in 2016. But they at least gave him a 20% chance, much higher than most “expert” statistical modelers, like the Princeton Election Consortium, which gave him an absurd 0.01% chance.
Big picture: Betting odds remain the single best, and fastest-updating predictor.
The Good: On Tuesday night, Ron DeSantis’ odds of becoming the Republican presidential nominee jumped from 16% to 27%, while Donald Trump’s odds fell to 18%. That’s probably because of DeSantis’ nearly 20-point blowout win in a swing state. I put this in the “good” category because, watching Trump on TV last night, I’m reminded that he’s an ignorant bully who only cares about himself. His mere presence on the public stage hurts America by creating more division and hate. His election “denier” candidates like Doug Mastriano, Doug Bolduc, Tudor Dixon, and John Gibbs all lost.
Also, if DeSantis is nominated in 2024, bettors give him a 74% chance of winning, whereas they give Trump just a 47% chance.
The Good: If Kamala Harris is nominated, bettors give her just a 36% chance of becoming president.
The Ugly: Long-term incumbents won again: Patty Murray, Mike Crapo and Chuck Schumer (29 years in Congress); Ron Wyden and Chuck Grassley won, too (42 years).
The Good: Iowa passed an amendment protecting gun rights. Three states passed measures protecting reproductive freedom. Anti-abortion measures in two states lost. Maryland and Missouri legalized recreational weed.
Maybe Good: Ranked-choice voting leads in Nevada.
The Bad: Recreational weed lost in Arkansas, North Dakota and South Dakota. Sports gambling lost in California. California also banned e-cigarettes, which will create a new criminal black market and kill more cigarette smokers.
The Ugly: Chuck Schumer will probably be Senate Majority Leader again.
The Ugly: The Wall Street Journal reports: “Europe Doubles Down on Big Government … adding hundreds of thousands of public-sector jobs, guaranteeing business loans.”
Won’t voters ever ask government to LEAVE PEOPLE ALONE?
It’s so sad. All around the world, we don’t learn.
By the way, ElectionBettingOdds.com also tracks football odds. The Buffalo Bills, despite losing last Sunday, still lead the Super Bowl pack. The Eagles, Chiefs follow; 49ers, Ravens and Cowboys follow.
Voters??? What voters??? Are you some kind of a clown?
Why are you talking about what to vote for when it is obvious that the election voting machinery is compromised on every level imaginable.
The primary focus of articles on FrontPageMag should be discussing the fraud, proof of fraud, nature of the fraud, systems to fix the fraud, etc.
My God. This is like listening to the French talk about what they dont like aboit the new German uniforms while they are under the rule if the Vichy government.
But then again John, youd know your career would be over in ten minutes if you took this issue seriously.
You are a joke.
“Won’t votes ever “TELL” the government to leave the people alone” … There I fixed it… Your are welcome.
J.J. Sefton says
Seriously, not one syllable about the election rigging machine cemented in place during Chinese COVID lockdown?
And yet, plenty of Trump derangement from yet another useless libertarian.
David Ray says
In Arizona, the leftist pricks are sabotaging printers, making it a bit difficult to print ballots that must be printed individually.
If the voter chooses to go to a different polling place, so as to avoid waiting several hours, they’re told they’ve already voted.
“So sorry for the misunderstanding.”
Contrast this with 2000, when one solitary woman said she felt intimidated upon seeing a cop near a polling station.
If that dumb bitch wanted to see real intimidation, she should’ve seen those white people harassed & threatened by the New Black Panthers at a polling center in Philadelphia. Needless to say, Eric Holder saw no evil; heard no evil.
Vince Clancy says
Perhaps Eric was color blind!
Steve Chavez says
“DEMOCRATS are addicting everyone to FREEBIES, as addictive as heroin, meth, and crack, so when we all become JUNKIES, we have to vote for them in order TO GET OUR FIX!” (SC)
DEMOCRAT CAMPAIGN SLOGAN USED NATIONALLY: “FREE FREE FREE BUT YOU MUST VOTE FOR ME ME ME!”
Even Republican students and their parents voted for FREE TUITION and then LOAN FORGIVENESS, still in the courts but IT WORKED!
Then the Pandemic put millions out of work, now A FREEBIE SOCIETY, with many getting endless unemployment, “WHY WORK WHEN I’M MAKING MORE ON UNEMPLOYMENT. YES, AND I’LL VOTE FOR THOSE WHO WILL KEEP SENDING ME THOSE CHECKS!” Then EBT, Housing, Medicaid, and pretty soon, EBT Gas Cards.
QUESTION: “Won’t voters ever ask government to LEAVE PEOPLE ALONE?” “ARE YOU CRAZY…. pass the joint man… it’s legal now and now I’m too stoned to work SO YES, LEAVE ME ALONE BUT KEEP SENDING THE FREEBIES! VIVA CHE! VIVA OBAMA! VIVA FREE FREE FREE KEEP SENDING THEM TO ME ME ME!”
Mo de Profit says
The pandemic didn’t put people out of work, the government imposed lockdowns did that.
Esvetlana Cramer says
It’s so easy to blame trump now for the debacle of Tuesday elections. Republicans have done nothing to stop the criminal democrats to rigg the elections. It wasn’t the candidates that trump supported that were bad! Oz a heart surgeon versus fetterman a man that can’t put two sentences together!? The so called squad girls!? Racist pastors!? The Republicans have not developed any back bone they are a the party of stupid. Now de santis is the start. I like him a lot but he has 0 chances of winning the white house! He’ll be chew up and spit like they did to trump, unfortunately we don’t have millions of Cubans expatriates that flew communism 59 years ago in every state of our country!
Don Kosky says
WE have a broken election system, and yes plenty of fraud, you shouldn’t down play
that. I don’t care one bit about the politics of “election denial”, you go where
the evidence leads you. Stolen elections do much more than shift power from one side to another, it also sends a message that validates the beliefs of the winners and invalidates the beliefs of the losers and causes people to adjust their tactic when in fact no adjustment is needed. It destroys hope, and frustrates the hell out of us normal people that have to spend money to get the truth out when we could be spending the money on our families and churches vs. Judicial Watch or ACLJ.
Garrett Fulton says
No, the UGLY: “I put this in the “good” category because, watching Trump on TV last night, I’m reminded that he’s an ignorant bully who only cares about himself. His mere presence on the public stage hurts America by creating more division and hate.” John Stossel with terminal TDS. What a disappointment from someone who has been his fan for years. Vaya con Dios, bitch.
Marxists never die, they just destroy everything they can.
Stossel is a LIBERTARIAN,like me, and one of the principles of Libertarianism is
NON-interventionism. That means being ANTI-imperialist.
In essence, it means being ANTI-war.
Yet there is NO condemnation by Libertarians , of the fact that TRUMP and the other Republicans have been almost 100% SILENT about the warmongers who are the Democrats(Globalists-Great Reset).
The Democrats are pushing for WAR with RUSSIA and CHINA. Trump should be the leader of the antiwar movement.
If the US gets destroyed by a nuclear war in 2023 then no presidential election in the US in 2024,since it would
NOT exist. Trump is so stupid,I used to think he was super-intelligent, a 4D chess player.What a lie.
Libertarians say they base all their opinions on facts,empirical evidence. Regarding China, most are closed-minded,they
accept as truth ALL that the Globalist-Great Reset-New World Order (Soros,Biden,Obama,etc)
press says about CHINA. There is an American,BRIAN,whose youtube channel is “The New Atlas”,who lives in Thailand.
He shows,using GLOBALIST sources ,that the belief there is an all-pervasive SOCIAL CREDT totalitarian system in China, is false.
An OPEN-minded person listens to the best arguments of both sides,to get to the truth. Check out the video:
“China’s “Social Credit Score System” – Fact or Fiction?” ( 26 min)
by THE NEW ATLAS
There are exceptions,unlike Trump and also DE SANTIS, Republicans
CANDACE OWENS ,black politician, and MARJORIE-TAYLOR GREENE,
are denouncing the actions of the Globalist Biden government, because,they say,
it is leading us to NUCLEAR war But not Trump,nor DE SANTIS,he is no better.
Both Trump and De Santis are on the WRONG side of history,the future generations will condemn them for being silent.
Other heroes, not silent like Trump and De Santis(who seems to be a NEOCON,that is to say warmonger, pro-interventionist)
are TUSLI GABBARD and RON PAUL ( who is a Republican and also a LIBERTARiAN) and Conservative economist JEFFREY SACHS . Two have:
2.And all are ANTI-Globalist and antiwar. The Globalists are the New Imperialists.
3.. Their youtube channels are:
a. Ron Paul: “RonPaulLibertyReport” ( 2,312 videos )
b. Tulsi Gabbard: named “Tulsi Gabbard” ( 1,000 videos )