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[Make sure to read Daniel Greenfield’s contributions in Jamie Glazov’s new book: Barack Obama’s True Legacy: How He Transformed America.]
“Last year, the United States had one of the lowest rates of all violent crime — of all violent crimes in more than 50 years. Murder, rape — murder, rape, aggravated assault, robbery all dropped sharply, along with burglary, property crime, and theft,” Biden recently proclaimed at a White House law enforcement event.
And then he claimed credit for it.
While Biden has a history of making things up, this particular one has been slowly making its way through the media which is also composed of the only people who could possibly believe it.
The original source for the claim that the United States had the lowest crime rate in 50 years came from the substack blog of Jeff Asher, a 30-something former federal employee who set up his own consulting and analytics firm that helps create “a more equitable criminal justice system” which is a term often used for the pro-crime policies that led to the high crime rates.
Asher had popped up in pro-crime media outlets back in 2020 to dismiss the idea that pro-crime policies had caused a surge in violent crime. In one op-ed, Asher blamed, “increased domestic violence early in the pandemic, warmer weather, or just plain randomness”. Now Asher is back and arguing that we’re enjoying “the lowest violent crime rate nationally since 1969.”
And his claim appears to have ended up in a president’s mouth.
There are some obvious problems with Asher’s thesis. Forget 1969. The FBI recorded 16,214 murders in 2018. While a story about Asher and his firm says that they expect “homicides overall to fall from 21,156 last year to around 18,450 this year.”
Asher admits that, “murder was almost certainly still higher in 2023 than in 2019 even with a record double-digit decline nationally this year, but not by much.”
Biden is bragging about the “lowest crime rate in 50 years” that includes thousands more murders than not all that long ago under Trump.
But Asher argues that, “Detroit is on pace to have the fewest murders since 1966”. That would be more impressive if not for the fact that there were over 1.5 million people living in Motor City in 1966 and there are some 600,000 still living there now.
There were 252 murders in Detroit in 2023, that’s a little more than the 232 murders in 1966, but the actual per capita murder rate is much higher because the population is much lower. Detroit has actually gone from 15 murders per 100,000 to 41 murders per 100,000.
Any statistical analyst who writes the sentence that “Detroit is on pace to have the fewest murders since 1966” without a massive qualifier is triggering more red flags than the USSR.
Virtually all of the media’s reporting on the good news about crime rates has come from Asher and AH Datalytics. Relying on a single source for reporting on a national phenomenon would have traditionally been frowned upon, but the media has long since discarded such journalistic hangups. And media outlets have asked Asher no substantive questions about his research.
Nor do they wonder when an expert describes the reduction in crime rates as a mystery.
Asher tends to argue that there’s no explanation because he’s ignoring the obvious causes. “The national murder rate reached a modern low in 2014, capping a quarter-century decline. Then it rose across the United States in 2015 and 2016. Why gun violence increased in those two years remains somewhat of a mystery, and no single factor is likely to explain it, but there is one potential contributor that is rarely talked about: the weather,” he wrote in a New York Times op-ed. A likelier explanation than the weather might have been the Ferguson riots in 2014.
Crime rates are not a mystery. We know what caused them and what causes them to drop.
Baltimore, another of Asher’s success stories, is claiming that murders have dropped sharply. There were 262 murders in Baltimore in 2023. That is down from 334, but it’s still a ways from 211 in 2014. In 2015, as the Freddie Gray riots swept through the city, incited by pro-crime politicians and activists, and Baltimore’s homicides jumped massively to 342.
After a decade of violence, Baltimore’s murders may finally be approaching what they were in 2014. It’s a dubious success story that fails to mention the obvious cause of the killings.
The violence helped lead to a 6% drop in Baltimore’s population from 2010 to 2020. With 35,000 fewer people, Baltimore’s per capita murder rate is actually higher than it would appear.
Asher is basing his large claims off FBI statistics. And those statistics are highly suspect.
The FBI’s data collection methods had changed at the same time as it began reporting a sudden drop in the crime rate and the numbers appear to have been massaged by various pro-crime think tanks and organizations. Thousands of police agencies are no longer having their data incorporated into the FBI’s statistics and it’s hard to believe that this isn’t linked to the drop.
And there are even more blatant ways of suppressing crime rate statistics.
Mayor Brandon Johnson, Chicago’s radical pro-crime boss, is shutting down the ShotSpotter program that helped police track shootings. While Johnson has made some of the familiar pro-crime arguments against ShotSpotter, the real trouble with the tool is that it raises crime rates by alerting police to incidents that would otherwise not have been reported. Past surveys have suggested that only 1 in 10 incidents intercepted by ShotSpotter led to a call to the police. Imagine how crime rates will drop after ShotSpotter is gone and how Johnson will take credit.
Another story from The Atlantic promoting Asher’s claims of low crime rates contrasted with the decline in police forces suggested that defunding the cops doesn’t affect crime rates. It’s more likely that historic police cuts have led to lower police responses and lower crime rates. That’s not because crimes aren’t being committed, they’re just not going into the database.
Police responses have slowed down in some places while in others patrols have been canceled and officers have stopped responding to entire categories of calls. Pittsburgh recently announced that it won’t respond to 911 calls that aren’t “in progress emergencies” such as thefts or burglaries. And, predictably, Pittsburgh appears on Asher’s list of success stories.
Why don’t people believe Asher? Because, according to Asher, “people are bad at perceiving crime trends.” And the media has gone with this angle that people are stupid and ignorant.
NBC News trumpeted Asher’s claims with the headline, “Most people think the U.S. crime rate is rising. They’re wrong.” The Atlantic argued that, “in surveys, most Americans say that crime and inflation are still rising, but they’re wrong… the twin crises largely evaporated, and no one is totally sure why.” When a crisis goes away and no one is sure why, that’s because it didn’t.
Multiple media outlets championed Asher’s claims and argued that the public was worried about crime because “some candidates lean into ‘tough on crime’ rhetoric that doesn’t necessarily match reality” (Axios) like Trump’s “fear-based appeals on crime” (The Atlantic).
But if the public was prone to believing things just because politicians and media outlets tell them so, shouldn’t “more than three-quarters of the public” believe that crime is dropping?
And yet the experts, or in this case, one expert had spoken.
Statistics can be a useful tool, but they only show part of the picture. The FBI crime data represents a final dumping ground for statistics from a large number of law enforcement agencies that can be put together in different ways to tell multiple stories. Data reflects primarily the means by which it is gathered, law enforcement, and then put together, but the real origin point for all that data is with the ordinary people whom Asher and the media dismiss.
When crime victims no longer bother to call 911, when the police no longer go out because there are no officers and there’s no point, when crimes are underreported and undercharged, the public still knows what’s going on even if the data no longer shows up at police departments.
In an NPR interview, Asher responded to a survey showing that “more than three quarters of Americans believe there’s more crime in the country” with the condescending reply, “the only way that I find to discuss it with people is to talk about, this is what the data says. You know, you’re wrong. And then I’ll take out my phone and say, look, here’s a chart, for the graphic learners.” Whom are you going to believe, Asher’s phone or your own eyes?
BLSinSC says
Old saying – “Liars figure and figures lie”!! We’ll see if those awesome FACT CHECKERS jump all over this or just go along with the lies!
Daniel Greenfield says
the media has been pushing the 50-year-low line for at least a month now.
Algorithmic Analyst says
Excellent analysis Daniel!
Shot Spotter works very well if the police know how to use it and are interested in using. In my old SF Bay city they got police response times to shots fired down to less than a minute, in time to save the lives of victims, for example. In contrast, in Oakland, Shot Spotter was useless, because the police didn’t know how to use it, nor were they interested in using it, nor was the Democrat political leadership of Oakland interested in using it.
SPURWING PLOVER says
Just how many Pinocchio’s is Biden earned so far? how many more until January 2025? His Presidential Lie-Brary is gong to burst at the seams from all those Pinocchio’s
David Ray says
The retarded old sociopath has so much in common with Al Gore – another idiotic, compulsive liar.
Those two grifters proved that lackluster idiots can make it big if they worm their way into government.
SPURWING PLOVER says
Al Gore Earth in the Balance and his thumb is on the scale
CowboyUp says
Pay no attention to all those restaurants and stores closing because of theft and violence against their employees and paying customers. They’re just wrong, and maybe raycis.
That’s why taco bell just closed all their dining rooms in Oakland, and are now cashless drive through. No walk ups at the drive through so now locals have to steal a car and a credit card just to get taco bell. They’re raycis, and need to be sued by the city of Oakland for causing crime.
I was wondering when the fblie was going to get around to doctoring their crime data and reports.
Daniel Greenfield says
The official media line is that stores are closing… because corporations are greedy.
Don’t try to ask how this makes any sense. Follow-up questions, yes indeed, are met with corporations are racist.
Even when they’re notoriously woke corps like Starbucks and Target.
Samuel Pope says
The crime data from your local Taco Bell is what you would call a small sample. It’s substantial enough data for you to personally conclude that it might be a good idea to find another place to buy a chalupa, but it’s not substantial enough for you to personally conclude that rates of murder, assault, rape, robbery, arson etc are surging across the nation and that the FBI has doctored reports to prove otherwise. But if you want to keep going by your metric, I’ll just point out that there were some Taco Bell robberies during the Trump administration too, and so it looks like you’ll have to vote for a third party candidate in November.
I realize that you’re only following the Daniel Greenfield guide to statistical analysis here, which tells you to trust the FBI crime data from Trump’s first three years in office, to conveniently forget about 2020, and to dismiss the 2023 data as pure conspiracy. It must be a charmed life to be able to flit back and forth between trusting facts and fantasies like that.
mike says
Let’s not forget, crime is a state issue, not a federal issue. Constitutionally, the feds are very limited in how to be involved in crime issues. But both Trump and Biden, especially Biden, do not have a strong understanding of the concept of federalism.
Daniel Greenfield says
Traditonally. But the feds got involved in fighting organized crime and then redefined a whole lot of crime as interstate. Some legitimately, some not.
Certainly crime fed by drug cartels is interstate.
WhiteHunter says
The outrageously false and dishonest claims about a non-existent “drop” in violent crime are concocted by the Left the same way they bray about their equally jaw-droppingly false and dishonest lie that “inflation is down.”
It’s easy to make that claim when you quietly change the way inflation is calculated: by conveniently refusing to factor-in the outrageous increases in the prices of groceries, gasoline for our cars and diesel fuel for the trucks that delivery everything, and home utilities like electricity and heating fuel (oil and gas) for our furnaces.
Voila! See, if we just eliminate those “needless, extravagant luxuries” (“You should be eating less to lose weight–or eating bugs, instead of meat!–wearing a sweater (or maybe a parka) indoors to keep warm in winter, and driving an electric car anyway to Save the Panet!”) from the calculation, the number looks great! The best ever!
I recently met an elderly rock-solid Democrat and Biden loyalist who “loves” Biden, and will vote for him again, “because he increased my monthly SSI Benefit.” I didn’t bother to explain to her that while the number of dollars she gets is higher, those dollars buy LESS now, due to Bidenflation. For someone so blindly ignorant, Logic and Facts make no difference.
Daniel Greenfield says
That’s been the Dem strategy. They can’t and won’t stop spending, so they allocate a portion to social welfare, blame corporate greed for inflation, and then tell the middle class to lower their lifestyle expectations to save the planet.
Perry Bonney says
That sounds about right. As you suggest, the COLA lags the actual inflation. The closest that a retiree can get ahead, is when there is little or no inflation.
Yeah. People like that are happier than a bug in a potato patch, while the government is taking them to the cleaners through inflation.
World@70 says
“Asher is basing his large claims off FBI statistics.”
“There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics”
Mark Twain, or maybe, Benjamin Disraeli. Samuel Clements made that clear as mud himself.
World@70 says
I have a question:
If I shoot and kill someone breaking into my home and I am arrested for the murder, is the one who invaded my home the criminal or am I?
Daniel Greenfield says
obviously you are
As the OG Antifas used to say, property is theft. And critical race theory adds that property is racist.
“If you are a comfortable white person asking to dismantle the police I invite you to reflect: are you willing to stick with it? Will you be calling in three months to ask about garage break-ins? Are you willing to dismantle white supremacy in all systems, including a new system?” Minneapolis City Council President Lisa Bender tweeted.
Snowfrog says
“Statistics lie and liars use statistics”, Disraeli . The clapping morons reveal how gullible they are. Applauding liars is a sign of futility. So many defenders of dementia Joe and so little respect for the truth. The truth divides people because some are not willing to embrace reality. I never thought I would see the day when the masses willfully accept the lie when the truth sounds so much better. We are in strange times in America.
Daniel Greenfield says
A lot of people don’t care what the truth is or what the consequences are, they’re wired into a tribal culture war and they want their side to win at all costs. They’re just furious that the general public still notices inflation at the grocery store and hasn’t adopted their Double Think of pretending it’s all good.
Semaphore says
Very strange times indeed. The truth no one addresses, on either side of the arguement, is the spectre of trillion dollar deficits hiding like the boogyman in the closet. I fear it will be on us sooner that we think, and statistics won’t mean that much when it is.
Tex the Mockingbird says
Build Back Better the most empty and Meaningless Campaign slogan since Hope & Change and besides the Bitter Biter Bittern(Bettys Bitter Batter)is a bet little tougne twister
Algorithmic Analyst says
Thanks Tex! Build back better is just an excuse to destroy things, on the promise of building back better in future, a promise which is never fulfilled.
Sdog says
very good analysis…..
But your critique doesn’t make sufficiently clear that Jeff Asher…the prime source for this howler…is one and the same w AH Datalytics
So he’s trying to build online putative credibility by referring to his own Dr Frankenstein creation…
Doublesourcing has never been easier..
Leaving aside our lost cause president, anyone relying on this book and his sock puppet alter ego should hang their head in shame
u can have the Pb 1st says
sniffer joe is a lying mfkng ******