Al-Qaeda should be discouraged by the killing of Osama Bin Laden, the drone campaign in Pakistan and its retreat in Somalia, but things are looking up for the terrorist group in Yemen. The revolution against President Saleh’s regime has enabled Al-Qaeda to expand its base, as the U.S. rushes to build a base for drones that won’t be completed for another 8 months.
Vice President Abdu Rabu Mansoor Hadi, who has led Yemen since Saleh was forced to go to Saudi Arabia due to injuries from an assassination attempt, says that five provinces have been overtaken. At least 135 soldiers have been killed fighting radical Islamic militants. Fighting continues to spread, and now the government is using aircraft to bomb terrorist-held land.{{{*}}}
Al-Qaeda-tied terrorists have captured a makeshift army base in Abyan Province, and another base has been surrounded. The city of Houta in Lahj Province has fallen, and there are ongoing clashes in the port city of Aden. The capital of Abyan Province, Zinjibar, was seized in late May. About 50 Yemeni soldiers have gone missing. Overall, there are at least 300 to 500 members of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Abyan, Shabwan and Marib Provinces. The most well-know Al-Qaeda member is Anwar al-Awlaki, the American imam who is arguably the top inspirer of homegrown terrorism. He is a member of the powerful al-Awlaki tribe.
These advances by Al-Qaeda and like-minded extremists follow the headline-grabbing seizure of Jaar in Abyan Province, which has now come under air attack from the Yemeni air force. The province was declared an “Islamic Emirate,” and women were required to have identification and a male chaperone when leaving their homes. President Saleh’s press secretary blamed the revolution for enabling Al-Qaeda, saying, “Al-Qaeda is making use of the loose security situation caused by the protests” and “is encouraged by the obstinate position of the opposition over a peaceful transfer of power.”
The opposition to Saleh’s rule accuses the ruling government of allowing Al-Qaeda to prosper in order to make the case that the regime is needed for stability. Tens of thousands of people are protesting in Sanaa, demanding that the government do more to fight the radical Islamic terrorists. Colonel Mohammed al-Samwali, whose unit fought a group called Ansar al-Sharia, claims that the government hesitated to send reinforcements so the terrorist group could raise its head. An official in Abyan Province who belongs to Saleh’s political party agreed, saying that the regime wants to “terrorize and blackmail the world with Al-Qaeda.”
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“It is ridiculous to think that these [counter-terrorism] units could not have held off an ill-equipped Al-Qaeda advance. If Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula was strong enough to take control of an entire governorate, they would have done so much sooner,” said Abdul Ghani al-Iryani, an expert on Yemen.
The Jawa Report criticized the Western media for accepting the Yemeni government’s claims that an “Islamic Emirate” was declared in Abyan Province. The group that made the declaration was the Abyan Aden Islamic Army, led by Khalid Abdul Nabi, and not Al-Qaeda. The group has close ties to the Saleh regime, and has helped it fight the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in the north. The blog also says that Sami Dhayan, another militant leader involved in the operations, has a working relationship with the regime.
Sheikh Hamid al-Ahmar, a major tribal leader who has turned on Saleh, rejects concerns that a post-Saleh Yemeni government will not fight Al-Qaeda. He described the terrorist group’s presence as a “nuisance” that could be eliminated within months with adequate resources. However, the main opposition group is Islah, which is an affiliate of the Muslim Brotherhood and is backed by the Salafists. The opposition as a whole is claiming that it will do a better job of defeating Al-Qaeda than the current government, but the opposition itself has a major Islamist component.
The U.S. tried to kill Anwar al-Awlaki shortly after the death of Osama Bin Laden, opening up a more aggressive campaign to combat Al-Qaeda in Yemen. General Ali Mohsen, a very powerful leader who defected to the opposition, is now asking for foreign intervention to finish Saleh’s removal from power. He is warning of a “severe security stalemate” that will affect the entire Middle East.
The Yemeni vice president is now saying that it could be months before Saleh returns from Saudi Arabia, and it is difficult to envision a scenario where Saleh is able to retain power. A senior Saudi official is claiming that Saleh will definitely not come back to Yemen, and suggests the main problem is that “it has not been decided where he will stay.”
The revolution in Yemen is of the utmost importance. The instability is allowing Al-Qaeda to make critical gains, and it is inevitable that the government that replaces Saleh will be heavily influenced by Islamists. Yemen may well become the next Pakistan.
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