|
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...
|
I spent years telling skeptical conservatives that, yes Biden was going to run for reelection. Many didn’t believe it until he filed, became the automatic frontrunner, and had no opponents to speak of.
And while public perceptions of his state keep dropping, the Democrats have few options.
Sure, rank and file Dems could shift their support to Rep. Dean Philips, who is in possession of his full faculties and actually campaigning, but there’s zero sign of that happening. Instead, New Hampshire Dems wrote in Biden after he refused to even compete in their state in order to score a big hand-delivered win in South Carolina. (With 4% turnout.)
But here are the four scenarios ranked in order of probability.
1. Biden is the nominee – barring a serious medical breakdown, the frontrunner becomes the party nominee. – Most likely
2. Biden resigns – significant pressure is brought to bear on Biden, his aides and family members to get him to drop out – second most likely
3. Philips beats Biden – panicked by Biden’s poor polls and deteriorating condition, Democrats ignore the party and switch to Philips – least likely
4. DNC removes Biden – that’s the interesting ‘X’ scenario.- third most likely
Even if Biden does drop out, the results will be messy. It’s too late for anyone else to file to run. The only other candidate on the ballot is Rep. Dean Philips who has few allies and the Dem establishment is not about to let a dark horse whom they piled on win. They’d rather have Trump than Philips. (If you’re skeptical, think of all the Republicans who would rather have had Hillary than Trump.)
But what if Biden doesn’t drop out?
Let’s go back for a moment to Hillary Clinton’s fainting incident which was publicly dismissed, but privately was taken very seriously.
Then-Democratic National Committee head Donna Brazile considered replacing Hillary Clinton at the top of the party’s ticket last year after the presidential nominee appeared unsteady and stumbled following a September 11 memorial service in New York, Brazile writes in her new book.
As rumors swirled about Clinton’s health and the future of her presidential campaign, representatives of Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley contacted Brazile, she writes, apparently to offer their services.
“Gee, I wonder what he wanted to talk to me about?” Brazile writes about Biden.
Brazile writes that she considered several potential replacements for Clinton and Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., the vice presidential nominee, and concluded Biden and Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., would be the strongest combination to beat Donald Trump in November.
Brazile, who was abruptly brought on to replace former DNC chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz during the party’s convention last summer, did not have the power to unilaterally remove Clinton and Kaine.
But DNC rules give the party’s chairman the authority to set the ball in motion.
“In the event of death, resignation or disability of a nominee of the Party for President or Vice President after the adjournment of the National Convention, the National Chairperson of the Democratic National Committee shall confer with the Democratic leadership of the United States Congress and the Democratic Governors Association and shall report to the Democratic National Committee, which is authorized to fill the vacancy or vacancies,” the party’s Convention Call states.
Furthermore, the DNC bylaws state the chair is the one to call “a special meeting to fill a vacancy on the National ticket.”
So there’s a provision and while Hillary’s health care scare proved to be just that, Biden is clearly on the decline and likely in an irreversible way.
The current DNC president Jaime Harrison is seen as a Biden loyalist, but Brazile was seen as a Hillary loyalist. Politicians have no real loyalties though and Harrison is where he is because of the same guy who got Biden nominated and that’s South Carolina’s Rep. Jim Clyburn.
Had Rep. Clyburn gotten to name Biden’s VP, then Joe should be filing for retirement. Either way though an internal coup is possible. And if things get bad enough, it’s a viable scenario.
Just as challengers rushed to contact Brazile during Hillary’s incident, you can bet that some ambitious men and women have Harrison and Rep. Clyburn on speed dial. Brazile considered ousting Hillary and trying to bring in Biden and Sen. Cory Booker. You have to wonder who is on the list now.
Everyone would want to avoid a floor fight (as traditionally democratic as it may be) and that means a rapid coup in which a new nominee and veep are put in and rushed through the process, but there’s no way to organize something like that with the sheer number of delegates without tipping their hand.
Gov. Newsom has hung around obviously hoping to be that guy, but I’m skeptical he would be the insider pick.
So what are the possibilities?
1. Kamala – this one’s pretty obvious. The most legitimate way of pushing Biden aside is in favor of his No. 2. Kamala has a thousand negatives and polls badly, but she is the vice president.
2. Gov. Newsom – he’s been shamelessly campaigning for it, he has the money and the name recognition. But a lot of the party viewed him as undermining Biden and he isn’t personally well-liked. Apart from the money and name recognition, there’s not much of a selling point.
3. Hillary Clinton – a crazy and suicidal move, but the Clintons had a hell of a political machine and who else do the Dems even have who can be the public face a presidential campaign on short notice? John Kerry? Jimmy Carter?
4. A Senate Democrat who isn’t currently running, but has run before
5. Oprah – I know there’s an obsession with the idea that Michelle Obama will run. Nothing is impossible, but she’s not especially likable, a good campaigner or even interested. Oprah however actually was interested.
A new report says Oprah Winfrey pitched Utah Sen. Mitt Romney on a unity presidential ticket ahead of the 2020 election.
Axios reports that in the upcoming book “Romney: A Reckoning” by McKay Coppins, Romney recalls Winfrey saying they could join together “to save the country.”
Romney said he shot down the idea because he thought it would only help then-President Donald Trump win a second term.
Oprah denied the report.
“In November 2019, Ms. Winfrey called Senator Romney to encourage him to run on an Independent ticket,” the spokesperson says. “She was not calling to be part of the ticket and was never considering running herself.”
In the upcoming book Romney: A Reckoning, by veteran political journalist McKay Coppins, Utah Republican Romney recalls receiving a call from the media mogul, who is a Democrat, claiming that they should form a unity ticket “to save the country.”
Whom do you believe: Oprah or Romney? I’ll go with Romney because he has no reason to lie and Oprah does.
Why even mention this? A DNC coup would be really challenging because whoever the nominee is will need to secure the support of a very difficult electorate.
The delegates are going to be Biden people handpicked by his allies to prevent something like this from happening.
A coup will require courting some of these power blocs.
1. The Sanders/Warren mob or the DSA allied Left
2. The Clyburnites or the Congressional Black Caucus allies
3. Latino, Asian, Indian, and other minority blocs. Some of the Hamas caucus in Michigan is reserving likely delegates for just this kind of scenario.
4. Your run-of-the-mill delegate who is a Biden loyalist, but wants Democrats to win.
So the nominee needs to pivot Left, represent identity politics while at the same time emerges as an unambitious uniter doing this for the sake of the country.
The Oprah talk is likely a fantasy, but no one else is really positioned to bump off Biden at the DNC level.
If the DNC does stage a coup, they may well consider past opponents like Sen. Cory Booker who might be seen as being able to unite the various factions. There’s a reason Donna Brazile wanted him.
As mentioned, the likely replacement candidate would be a Senate Democrat who has run before. (The gubernatorial bench is even thinner than the Senate bench and who isn’t too off-putting or polarizing, who is not a hard leftist like Sanders or Warren, but is capable of cutting a deal with them.)
In this kind of scenario what’s really valuable is acclamation. And that’s hard to come by.
The public is generally in a dark state and politicians who used to be icons, like Obama or Bill Clinton, have quickly faded. Michelle Obama is not the transformative superstar some imagine her to be.
Dems have flirted with the idea of a celebrity, even one with no political experience at the top of their ticket, to take on Trump. Oprah has been one name, Dwayne Johnson another and there are plenty of other options. If that were to happen it would be one of the craziest things to happen in American presidential politics since last week. If this were 1992 or 2012, I would say it’s impossible, but we left impossible in the rearview mirror a while back.
Daniel’s analysis is very interesting, and while I have not had the time to fully prepare my own, I would go one step further than he: I believe that such a coup is not only possible, it has already started. Whoever’s in charge – and it’s probably a cabal made up of some DNC members, some billionaire donors, and Barry Obama – has decided that Biden must go because he would lose to Trump (and not because of Biden’s incapacity and threat it poses to this nation, which shows just how evil these people are). If this were not the case – if there were any chance that they might want to change their minds later in the year and go with Biden – the Special Counsel’s report would never have been published or even contained a declaration of Biden’s incapacity. In no way, shape, or form was Robert Hur at liberty to do as he pleased in the case – he’s been under someone’s orders since Day 1.
Yes, the report does make an alleged justification for letting Biden off the hook (which was preordained as putting him on trial might damage the Party) and for continuing the attempting crucifixion of Donald Trump, but as to the former they could have dreamed up any sort of B.S. rationale and as for persecuting Trump they really don’t care how bad that looks – they’re going ahead full speed until they either have in prison or he’s in the White House and they’re heading to some place without an extradition treaty with the U.S. The publication of the report means that they are committed to removing Biden from the ticket.
But that’s where it gets murky indeed. Daniel goes over all of the likely possibilities, and I could only add Amy Klobuchar to his list. We’re going to need more time and information to figure out exactly what rotten scheme the puppet masters have hatched.
KLobuchar would be OK but she is running for her senate seat and cannot run for president at the same time
Sir,
Banastre Tarleton was an SOB.
And you are a gormless git
Daniel has indeed come up with a very interesting insight into a lesser known possibility.
I agree, the coup has already started and the release of the Hur report is indeed confirmatory evidence of it.
Thanks. Amy Klobuchar brings some voters they would need, but seems like an unlikely figurehead to justify a coup. They’re going to want someone more exciting as justification, I think.
Now, I’m not saying she’s any good but I have another possibility. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Gretchen Esther Whitmer. She has political and executive experience. Would be from a swing state – Michigan, where Biden is having problems – and would be the glass ceiling breaking first female President. Of course, to push Kamala aside in favor of a white chick they’d have to find something good for the VP. Justice Sotomayor, your Party needs you to step down to make room for Justice Harris.
Maybe they’ll run AOC, as a sacrificial goat.
Just read somewhere in the last few hours, someone whose name I don’t remember predict that on or about Aug 19. Newsom will replace Biden.
dunno.
How about Moosechell Obama?
Captain Hook and Jaffar come to mind but Jaffar’s dead Jim his own Parrot Iago did him in
Corry Booker as a young Obama ? now that’s a thought .. they could then keep Harris as VP too
Mark Cuban, dark horse.
Democrats cheated to get the worst president in history into office. I don’t trust any single democrat alive. Meanwhile, Trump did a superb job. Except he hurt some feelings when he’d tell the truth. Our freedom is being trampled upon. And pure idiocy is reigning from progressive liberals…
I bet the Dems are regretting pushing aside Bobby Jr right about now.
Any YELLER dog will do.
Biden for President, with Barack as his Vice President.
Then Biden resignation after new term begins.
Barry Soetero can not be potus again, even by that measure.
22d Amendment Section 1
No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once. But this Article shall not apply to any person holding the office of President when this Article was proposed by the Congress, and shall not prevent any person who may be holding the office of President, or acting as President, during the term within which this Article becomes operative from holding the office of President or acting as President during the remainder of such term.
…That’s not a limit to Barack elected VP, then P resignation.
In a perfect world Biden will secure the nomination and then stroke out with only a few weeks left in the campaign. Kackles Harris would then claim that her new found incumbancy gives here the top spot
She would then say that some nobody white Senator is her VP choice.
Her position would be unassailable by the DNC as replacing her would immediately alienate the black female vote.
None the less she is so incompetant and unlikable Trump would win
Unless of course the Democrats commit such open fraud that it would make 2020 look like child’s play
It’s is a real dilemma for the Democrats. It is big game politics, and It appears that Barrack Obama and George Soros as the major players, so whoever replaces Biden will be tied to these two. The Democrats convention will be lively this year, with lots of back room deals going on.
I see something happening to Kamala. She is replaced. Then Biden resigns.
I’ve seen a push for Michele Obama. I think she has a problem with America. Michelle Obama is the poster child for emotional dissonance. Presidents should be chosen for their policy positions not skin color. Michelle is a race-baiter extraordinaire. Her academic career is
unremarkable, she is a victimhood, Marxist and BLM wet dream. However, she will be shackled by the disaster that is the Biden administrations actions over the last 3 years.She won’t be able to escape it. What would she do to get us out of this quagmire that is that different than the Biden administration? Answer: NOTHING! She’s probably part of the shadow presidency that created this mess.
Andy Beshear, recently re-elected in deep-red Kentucky, would be a formidable opponent in November — if the Democrats want to win at any cost. The Left would have to swallow hard and demand the selection of a hard-left running mate (almost certainly a black woman) in return for support Beshear.
The scenario involving Biden withdrawing as the nominee after securing the nomination and leaving selection of the nominee to the DNC chairman is plausible. It would require something like what happened in 1974 when a group of influential Republicans convinced Richard Nixon that his position was untenable. A fresh-face like Beshear could either accept Kamala Harris as his running mate or state that he’d prefer to make his own selection, while promising Harris a cabinet appointment in his administration. Keep in mind how Thomas Eagleton was quickly replaced by Sargent Shriver in 1972 after revelations about his earlier mental problems.
It’s a good analysis, but I think Andy would make more sense for the party the Dems used to be, not the party they are.
Not to mention that the odds of a Dem winning Kentucky in a presidential election, even if he won the governorship, aren’t currently stellar.
I tend to think that the only way Biden drops out is if he more or less has to because of his health (not merely SHOULD drop out for that reason). In that case, because there isn’t anyone available who is so obviously capable of beating Trump AND who would be acceptable to a broad enough majority of the various dem factions listed in this article, Kamala would be the replacement nominee.
Another way of looking at this is, if the dems had a broadly supported (within the party) alternative waiting in the wings who was nearly a shoo-in to beat Trump, Biden would already be out, and that other person would already have locked down the nomination. Therefore, if Biden does drop out before the election, the choice will be between Kamala and some other flawed candidate who lacks broad support across all factions of the party. In that scenario, I think Kamala’s status as the presumptive successor would be enough for her to get the nod.
Cory Booker is severely heterosexual. So there’s that.
super-severely
Hunter gets the nod. That way they don’t have to change the stickers. Big guy still gets 10%.
The DNC cannot force Mr. Biden out and it seems Mrs. Biden, Joe’s enabler, really, really enjoys being FLOTUS. Joe is currently live in the best Assisted Living facility in the US and probably feels that, after a lifetime of Public Service, he deserves to live out his life in luxury being treated like royalty. The only way to get rid of the Bidens is through criminal charges that can stick but I don’t see Merrick Garland doing that. Lyndon Johnson waited until March 1968 to announce he would not run but his VP, Hubert “I’m pleased as punch to be here” Humphrey, was a ready replacement. No one want Kamala Harris. Kamala told Katie Couric last week that their unpopularity was due to them not, ‘taking enough credit for all they’ve done for the American people’ and now, Joe is passing on an opportunity to speak to the largest TV audience of the year at the Super Bowl where he could tell all America about the great things he’s done for them. Either the Democrats are giving up on the election or they have the ‘fix’ in so firmly that Joe and Kamala don’t need to work to win.
Why is there no mention of Joe Manchin? If the Dems actually want to win, Manchin is officially a Democrat but also appeals to Republicans who might prefer someone other than Trump.
they’d never pick Manchin, he’s more likely to run New Labels than under the DNC banner
I envision four possible scenarios, none of them very happy for the Democrats:
1. Biden remains steadfast… ahem… and refuses to step down and insists on running for a second term. The wife (Dr Biden, aka “Mrs. Wilson”) is the key player here. The Dems will then be stuck with Clueless Joe in November, and they realize that he would most likely lose, given his… um… cluelessness. The probability of this outcome is about 50/50.
2. Biden remains in office but announces that he will not run again. Once again, Mrs Wilson is the key player here because it will be she who makes the decision. This is the Democrats’ best chance. It would allow some dark horse, such as Michelle Obama or Gavin Newsome to head the ticket, which means that Kamala will be cast aside. The problem for the Dems is that the convention would be brokered and that the nominee will have never faced the voters in any primary. Odds: 30%
3. The Cabinet invokes the 25th Amendment and forcibly removes Biden, which will result in President Kamala. Odds: 10% at best. In the first place, this gambit would mean that Kamala would lead the ticket in November, guaranteeing electoral defeat. In the second place, it would almost certainly require at least one or more of the top 3 cabinet secretaries – State, Defense, Treasury – to take the lead in such a coup, highly unlikely given their spinelessness and the fact that they all hold their offices thanks to Joe. Mayor Pete alone can’t lead the charge.
4. Biden resigns, which means President Kamala, with all the obvious consequences and disadvantages. Odds: 5% or less.
Irrespective, one of Biden’s last official acts will be to pardon son Hunter.
Gavin Newsom has shown his popularity in California already ; he doesn’t need a primary
“it would almost certainly require at least one or more of the top 3 cabinet secretaries – State, Defense, Treasury – to take the lead in such a coup, highly unlikely given their spinelessness and the fact that they all hold their offices thanks to Joe. Mayor Pete alone can’t lead the charge.”
can’t argue with that
Their problem with replacing O’Biden is Kamala Harris’ popularity with Women of Color™, a demographic the dems cannot afford to alienate. Harris offers the dems a zero chance of victory in November so let’s face it; she has to go too. And that’s the rub: getting rid of Harris gets rid of Women of Color™ votes right along with her. That cannot be allowed to happen. O’Biden’s replacement will have to appease this specific voting bloc (along with many others). The candidate will HAVE to be a BIPOC female. Since the dems have based their party identity on “identity politics”, they’ve trapped themselves into a very narrow field of “acceptable” replacements. This is how we know that O’Biden’s replacement is Moochie Obama.
Kamala isn’t too popular with black voters. Biden beat her among black voters. It’s why she had to drop out.
The state deadline to file the required paperwork to be on the ballot in November has passed in all but five or six states. To the best of my knowledge, the only other Democrat who has filed paperwork broadly is Kennedy, and I don’t know whether he has filed in all 50 states. At this point it’s Biden or Kennedy for the Democrats.
In most states these deadlines are coded in statutes, so the Secretary of State does not have authority to change the date to allow another candidate to run. I’m sure the Soros sponsored Secretary of States will attempt to change the date unilaterally, but they are not likely to win in the ensuing litigation. This is the price the Democrats pay for not allowing primary opponents.
Sigh, it truly is a popularity contest.