No one knows anything and political predictions are a fool’s game. But, let’s say this trend continues.
Biden’s campaign collapses. Moderate voters flee to Buttigieg and Bloomberg (neither of whom are moderates, but, unlike Sanders, they haven’t memorized the lyrics to The Internationale in Russian either.)
At that point, where do black voters go?
Biden’s support has come from black voters. Without him in the race, where would his base go? A matchup between Buttigieg and Sanders would be a total disaster. Buttigieg still draws very little black support. Sanders isn’t turning out black supporters either.
Bloomberg is waiting in the wings and capable of investing money in black voter turnout. But he’s also as charismatic as a squid.
If black voter turnout collapses, then so do Dem chances.
Which times Trump’s pitch to black voters perfectly. Trump doesn’t need to pick up a lot of black voters. He just needs to…
1. Lower black turnout for the Dems by showing that the media smears are nonsense
2. Make a case for black votes
And President Trump is doing both. He just needs to cut into enough turnout to make the candidacies of Sanders or Buttigieg a non-starter and that won’t be that hard. Without record black turnout, the Democrats are not taking another election.