“What’s going on with the Latino vote?” a thousand media articles ask. They invariably make the wrong assumption that what’s happening with the Latino vote represents some sort of massive shift.
The problem with the Dems and their media (and to a lesser degree, Republicans) is that they tend to generalize about Latinos based on black voters. Latino voters are mostly non-ideological. And when they are ideological, it’s because they’ve become assimilated into American culture.
They’re not deeply attached to any party and what’s happening isn’t a seismic shift. Rather Latinos, like a lot of people, are unhappy with the state of the country and blame the leadership. Small business owners and workers are affected by terrible Dem leadership.
Especially in blue states.
This is bad news in the short term and in the long term for the Dem project of transforming America using the majority-minority model. But it’s not really a surprise.
The Dems simply chose to ignore what their own Latino consultants told them which is that Latinos are not a single group. There are a range of origin countries, cultures, even ethnicities and races, economic classes, political philosophies, religious denominations, etc
A Venezuelan businessman with a Harvard degree who is descended from the original Spanish settlers and some Confederate refugees forced to leave his country because of Socialism isn’t going to think and vote all that much like a Mexican peasant descended from Indians.
This doesn’t mean that everything is fine and open borders work. Mass migration is transformative and makes it hard to maintain any kind of national culture or identity. More recent immigrants are more likely to remain on the Dem plantation. It’s why open borders is a big priority.
The third generation border patrol member in Texas who goes to an evangelical church is very different than the border crosser from El Salvador who’s about to touch base with every single leftist community group that will tell him exactly how to vote.
None of this is news. There’s just been a reluctance to understand and grapple with the complexities involved.
Democrats tend to reduce minorities to cliches and Republicans also tend to group a minority together. The reality is more complex and more challenging. The fundamentals haven’t changed. Dems still benefit from mass migration and Republicans from reducing it, but the details of the thing mean that it’s not all one thing or another.