A few days ago I wrote that a Liz Cheney presidential bid would be a non-starter as soon as the lefties funding such a thing realize that it’s more likely to help Trump than Biden.
There’s a plan here, but it mainly involves Democrat campaign consultants cashing in on Dem donors. Like the ones who poured money into Liz Cheney’s congressional race.
The only party this hurts are the Democrats.
Any Anti-Trump Republican willing to vote for Cheney in a Trump-Biden race, would be more likely to vote for Biden than Trump. A hypothetical Liz Cheney campaign wouldn’t hurt Trump, it would hurt Biden.
That’s exactly what the polling shows.
Yet a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that if Cheney were to run for president as an independent in 2024, she could actually do the opposite.
She could single-handedly swing the election to Trump.
It found that if the 2024 election were held today — and if it were a one-on-one rematch between President Biden and Trump — Biden would lead by 4 points among registered voters, 46% to 42%.
But in a three-way race with Cheney on the ballot as an independent, Trump would suddenly vault to an 8-point lead over Biden, 40% to 32%.
In that scenario, Cheney trails with just 11% of the vote. The problem for Biden is that nearly all of Cheney’s votes come at his expense — and there are enough of them, in theory, to put Trump over the top.
Don’t get me wrong, none of this matters. If Liz Cheney were to run, she wouldn’t get 11% or 3%. The numbers reflect the positive media coverage of her and the general dissatisfaction with Biden. A third-party candidate with steady media coverage could break off a significant amount of votes just by showing up. That’s exactly why Dems will likely do everything they can to keep Biden from running and if he does, they’ll do everything they can to destroy any third-party candidate who runs, including Cheney.
The only losers in this are the various political consultants who were hoping to cash in on her. Sorry guys. Try Bernie Sanders again.