A lot of politics is not about how well you’re doing, but how badly the other guy is doing. In a two-party system with a large independent bloc (in other words very different from the setup in blue cities like New York City or blue states like California), poor performance means that enough voters surge to your opponents to effect change and send a message.
The congressional ballots aren’t tilting Republican because the public loves the GOP, but because it’s angry and fed up with Dems.
Republicans now sport a historic 10-point advantage when Americans are asked which party they prefer to control Congress, holding a 44%-34% margin over Democrats. That’s up from a 2-point Republican advantage in the October survey.
In the past 20 years, CNBC and NBC surveys have never registered a double-digit Republican advantage on congressional preference, with the largest lead ever being 4 pints for the GOP.
How bad is it? Global Warming fanatics, the people who believe the sky is literally falling, are backing away from the Dems.
Inflation has now firmly eclipsed the coronavirus as the No. 1 concern for the country, with those two issues followed by immigration, crime and climate change.
But Democrats have lost ground on the issues.
Regardless of what respondents believe to be the top issue facing the country — inflation, coronavirus, and even climate change — their preference has shifted towards Republican control of Congress.
For example, those who thought climate change was the most important issue in October preferred Democratic control of Congress by a 59-point margin. That’s now fallen to a 33-point margin.
Obviously they don’t really believe that.
But, as Glenn at Instapundit likes to say, “don’t get cocky”. And don’t forget that Republicans have a perverse talent for snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory. In a matchup where the GOP is vastly favored because they’re not the other guy, they can still manage to sabotage themselves through pointless infighting, campaign consultant grifting, and a failure to address the real issues.