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Sometimes revolutions and uprisings play out as extended battles. Other times the collapse is near instantaneous because the army simply won’t fight. That’s what happened during the original ISIS onslaught, the fall of Afghanistan and now the fall of Syria.
Regime loyalists insist that the Syrian army was bought off. Perhaps the Turks and whatever other interests were behind this ‘uprising’ spread some money around.
But more likely there wasn’t much of a Syrian army left.
The Syrian army had been notorious for its cruelty and ruthlessness. While the Egyptians had larger troop numbers and the Jordanians had better professionalism, Israeli soldiers of a certain era tended to remember the viciousness of the Syrians. The Assad family had withstood multiple Sunni Islamist rebellions through sheer brutality. But by 2024, there was not much of that army left.
The Syrian Civil War had turned Syria into a puppet regime controlled by Iran and Russia. Neither side wanted much of a Syrian military. Assad Jr was, like many nepo baby dictators in the region, a weak leader with no real idea of how to rebuild Syria. Hezbollah and the Russians had saved him during the civil war. But it took a lot of bleeding to do it. And after Hezbollah’s war with Israel, it lacked the momentum or manpower to do it. Iran seemed hesitant and indecisive. And the Russians tried to bring some airpower in but not enough to make a significant difference.
Trump may have been the X factor hanging over this as well. While he indicated that he didn’t want America involved in the civil war, some of the pro-Assad players may have hesitated to get involved in a long-term conflict with an unpredictable administration coming into office.
Either way, the Assad family seems to be done. What happens to Syria may however prove more complicated. Post-fall, Syria is likely to follow demographic trends and that means the Alawite minority isn’t likely to run the place ever again. But there will be multiple factions in play.
Turkey would love to dominate Syria, but right now every state in the region is likely to back different factions and Istanbul is more obsessed with wiping out the Kurds than trying to herd all the goats.
Some sort of coalition may form or it may devolve into a full-on civil war or quite possibly some combination of the two. The one thing the Middle East isn’t known for is stability.
Chaos is the one thing you can bet on in the Middle East.
Lots of excellent points.
Russia is already overextended so not much chance they could intervene.
The hardest part is what does Israel do now? Highlights the need for strong reserves.
Take Mount `Hebron and bomb Damamscus
Take Mount `Hebron and bomb Damascus
Yes, the overthrow and probable death of Asshat is major news that isn’t being reported in the major news networks, not even the ones I respect, like Newsmax and Real America”s Voice. They just had one of those running trailers at the bottom of the screen.that said so. I barely noticed it. None of the news hosts have talked about it yet.
I was like, WTF? How is that not major news? Asshat was a scumbag but he brought a modicum of order to “Syria.” Although like Greenfield noted, that part of the world is unstable, to say the least. People make the societies they live in.
It’s too bad. I’d love to visit the Petra sites but I’ll never go to that fucked up country, which is apparently more fucked than ever.
I seem to remember in “The Epic of Gilgamesh” that place was always fucked up, although it had a nice cedar forest, which naturally the Ayrabs chopped down as soon as they got the chance. I remember Gil fought a giant name Humbaba. Heck, it’s been forty years since I read that. I’m surprised I still remember any of it.
If a constant state of conflict is the norm in the Middle East, what would peaceful coexistence be called there?
My best guess would be “Temporary”.
All those Sunni countries going against Shiite Assad in Syria…
The message is clear… tear down the Shiite so the Sunni can rise up in power…
And… America supports Sunni ISIS… and the satanic Sunni world…
Shites and Scummies. Who gives a shit about any of them. The more who die, the better.
Will there ever be peace between the Arabic tribes ?
Chaos is the one thing you can bet on in the Middle East.
Ishmael. He will be a wild donkey of a man; his hand will be against everyone and everyone’s hand against him, and he will live in hostility toward all his brothers” (Genesis 16:11–12).
The descendants of Ishmael., they are indeed numerous, divided into twelve tribes, and, as God had earlier revealed, “They lived in hostility toward all the tribes related to them” (verse 18). Ishmael lived a total of 137 years (verse 17).
The only thing Islamofascists hate more than each other is everybody else on the planet. They are a cult of hate
That’s for sure. Those islamopithecines are like hyenas. All they do is hate and have hunger.
Their lower animal brains largely control them.
Remember… the media portraying the Assad Shiite government as the “Rebels”…
Remember… America was sending weapons to our enemy ISIS in Syria to take down Assad…
So learn and remember the famous Islamic saying…
“My brother and I are against our cousin… but my brother and I, WITH our cousin, are against the unbelievers of allah.”
What it obvious is…
The Western world supports satanic Sunni islam…
The ignorance of the world…
Its a battle of Sunni vs. Shiite. And the world has picked their sides…
Together they are against any other Infidel religion that exists in their nation(s). This is the REAL issue revolving around all these Middle East satanic islamic nations. Cleanse themselves of all other religions while they fight each other to become dominate.
In the mean time… the Luciferian Globalists are aiding these satanic worshiping muslims by providing funds to institute Democracies to eventually vote in their coming Caliph. In order to institute the Antichrist Beast System. The NWO…
If these people want peace and cooperation with Israel and the west, including USA first they must rebel and oust their leaders – if it’s just replacing a banana republic with another with plenty of jihad – well they must be wiped out
I thought he was Alawite who are considered apostates by most slimes and he worked all the factions against one another, including Christians.
Now the real genocide begins. It will be particularly rough for the Christians and Alawites.
Yes. I suspect that whatever ‘demographics’ we have on Syria are about to change.
We cannot admit that Muslims will genocide their neighbors without an authoritarian government ruling over them with an iron fist.
Well said, thanks Dan !!!!!
Your pet dictator falling isn’t chaos, Danny boy.
I got your “Danny Boy” swinging.