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Current polls, pundits, and politicos insist that the 2024 race is a sure rematch between former President Donald Trump and incumbent President Joe Biden.
It may well turn out that way.
But in past election cycles, summer polls 15 months before the general election usually did not mean much.
In December 2003, the CBS poll headline blared, “Dean pulls away in Dem race.” Howard Dean would eventually be clobbered by nominee John Kerry.
In the Gallup Poll of late June 2007, Hillary Clinton still continued to enjoy her wide lead in the Democratic primary over eventual nominee and elected president Barack Obama.
On the Republican side, Gallup noted of its summer 2007 polls that, “There has been little serious threat to the frontrunner, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani” — who bombed out early in the race.
About this time in 2015, Jeb Bush was leading Trump in the Republican primary. Or as CNN characterized their summer poll, “He (Bush) holds a significant lead over the second-place candidate Trump.”
By January 2016, the favorite, can-do Wisconsin governor Scott Walker was leading all candidates by a substantial margin as they headed for the Iowa caucuses.
There are lots of reasons to believe that 2024 may prove to be the most volatile race in recent memory.
Not since 1912 — when third-party ex-president Theodore Roosevelt challenged incumbent President William Howard Taft in a three-way race with Woodrow Wilson — have two presidents run against each other.
Both, remember, lost that year to the far less experienced Wilson.
Second, Trump is currently the target of at least four state and federal prosecutors.
Millions of Americans feel that current and likely future indictments are patently political. The Trump prosecutions would never have gone ahead had he not run for the presidency a third time.
Leftwing strategists believe that these partisan indictments will earn Trump Republican empathy.
The legal persecutions supposedly will ensure him the nomination, but then intensify during the 2024 general campaign to bleed him out — ensuring a Democratic victory.
Perhaps.
But the Left’s weaponization of the legal system is playing with fire.
They have no real idea whether their hounding will result in an indicted, inert Trump at election time, or fuel more empathy to empower him over his eventual Democratic rival, regardless of his legal status.
Or will the unending legal morass eventually wear out Republican primary voters, resulting in their rage at such unfairness helping another Republican candidate?
Third, despite Democratic denials, there is mounting evidence — from emails, laptop communications, IRS whistleblowers, testimony from Biden family business associates, and likely bank records — that Biden was directly involved in his son’s illegal activities.
Yet daily new details elicit only incoherent fury from Biden — especially since he clearly has serially lied that he had no knowledge of his son Hunter’s business misadventures.
Fourth, not since Woodrow Wilson’s incapacity rendered him bedridden and all but incommunicado for the last 17 months of his presidency, has a president appeared so enfeebled.
The 80-year-old Biden has fallen repeatedly. He often slurs his words to the point of inaudibility.
His halting gait radiates frailty.
Often aides must remind Biden where he is.
Biden appears frustrated and angry at his increasing cognitive decline –forgetting the names of foreign leaders and close associates.
To be blunt, Biden is one more serious fall from physical incapacity — and a Vice President Kamala Harris’ stewardship of his presidency.
Increasing leftwing leaks and rumors spread alarm about Biden’s legal problems. Liberal writers chart his mental confusion. Progressive columnists decry his treatment of his illegitimate granddaughter.
Apparently Democratic insiders hope Biden does not run for reelection — but by all accounts must finish his term to prevent a Harris presidency in either 2023-4 or thereafter.
So, the leaks of Biden’s impropriety and incapacity are aimed at ensuring Biden does not run in 2024.
Yet they apparently must not prove actionable enough to abort his current presidency.
Fifth, the first Republican primary debate is still almost a month away. And debates often have proven the graveyard of sure-thing front-runners.
Trump has understandably indicated it would be foolish to debate while enjoying a sizable lead in the polls.
Nevertheless, it is hard to imagine that Trump, a proven and skilled debater, would pass up the stage of a multimillion-person televised audience only to be ritually trashed in absentia on it.
It is even more difficult to envision a frail Biden holding his own against either Democratic rivals or a Republican contender in the general election.
Add it all up, and the presidential race is unpredictable with an array of known “unknowns.”
The only certain fact is that anyone who currently declares the outcomes of the primary races or general election a foregone conclusion is utterly delusional.
I’m a great admirer of president Trump and I think he was definitely cheated out of the presidency through vote fraud.
He is however viewed as divisive.
He’s a businessman not a politician and that’s what people liked about him.
He does have one thing in the background that will finish him off if he wins the nomination, warp speed vaccine development.
Why do you think that the establishment is beginning to release reports like the one from Switzerland last week?
The vaccines are dangerous and he will take the rap for it because he allowed warp speed to boost his election chances.
We all know that it isn’t exactly true but that’s what the World pHarma Organisation will claim.
I find it interesting that the only matter that Trump assigned to his VP resulted in a task force Pence led fully embracing Fauci’s total commitment to vaccine development over therapeutics. This in the face of the availability of the signatories of the Great Barrington Declaration who were shunned by Mr. Pence. As Dr. Atlas’ book demonstrates, as did Trump’s own comments during his public appearances, Trump displayed the inquisitive instincts that should have been the hallmark of Pence’s role. Fauci was the culprit and Pence was his enabler. While you are probably correct that Trump will be tarred with Fauci’s role it was Pence who gave Fauci his lead role.
Good points. Few people realize what a fiend Pence is.
Yes, Beware the politicians who appear to be Conservatives but are actually working with the left
I, for one, couldn’t care less about vaccines. No one I know here where Covid killed broadly is obsessed with the topic. Well, there are those who follow a few leftists who now are popular on the right. Why ARE some past and present left-wingers so interested in being against the vaccines. anyway? Hmmmm?
I see President Trump’s actions on Covid as heroic. Why wouldn’t he believe a vaccine might be helpful? Thats a normal idea as most of us have been vaccinated for other diseases.
If he didn’t try for a vaccine he’d have been be damned. Since he did try, the Wolfe and Kennedy obsessed fan club try to damn him. This is exactly where the left wants you….blaming and hating Trump. Congratulations.
Good points. The very same scumbags who are pushing “inoculation” stabs every year are the ones who condemn Trump for doing the right thing.
Utter scum.
I was not blaming Trump, I was blaming Pence for his failure to manage his task force. He let Fauci run wild and failed to provide Trump with all of the available information which would have enabled Trump to better managed the response to the pandemic.
Trump will continue to take the “rap” for everything. As long as he’s alive and even after he’s dead. Dirtbagocrats are like butt worms. They just keep gnawing away until they destroy their host.
I doubt Trump can overcome the massive fraud that will no doubt occur again. He wasn’t able to overcome it when he say in the position as the most powerful person on earth.
Now as an outsider there is little chance he’ll overcome the shenanigans. If there is an election…
Sadly, you’re 100% right. We’re all fucked.
Trump has no chance. Too many anti-Trump voters, even among Republicans. Most will stay home.
Progressives hate Biden but he does their bidding. They don’t care if be becomes another Fetterman. But Biden has to replace Kamala Harris with Susan Rice. Harris scares leftists more than Biden. If he doesn’t he may lose moderates to Trump.
Republicans will cast the most votes in American history.
Vote fraud will be the decisive factor, just like in the last corrupted presidential election.
As Roger Kimball writes in his piece in American Greatness today, Jack Smith should just throw the entire US Code (book) at Trump — the empathy vote of attention-paying conservatives could reach stratospheric heights.
It will not happen, of course, but the article is worth taking a look at.
Make no mistakes about it. The grand plan is to run a third party.
A full blown tyranny, wolves in sheep’s clothing. It will be the leftist/islamist alliance at first, and once there’s no opposition and everybody has been scared off the islamists will take over.
They are already using blacks and false accusations of racism to force everybody into compliance.
If you don’t do as we say, and give us all the free stuff we demand, and let the criminals and terrorists run free, we will riot, terrorize and kill anybody who stands in our way. That’s what islam has been doing for 1,400 years.
The future is not D VS R. It’s about freedoms VS tyranny of satanist muslims and marxists.
The evil has already penetrated the hearts and minds of both parties and successfully turned them against each other.
If God’s work is about love, Satan’s work is about hate. And all we’ve seen lately has been hate, a sure sign of Satanist muslim and maexists at work.
This next election will be the breaking point, especially with more cheating in elections by those who want global governance and will continue their unfair attacks on President Trump who shows allegiance to America, his own country, not the world in all its insanity.
It’s not really Biden, but Obama’s 4th presidency that is at stake here.
He is now a desperate puppet master (the man behind the curtain) with puppet Joe’s woes, and his destructive policies that have been implemented like a good soldier by Biden are now at risk of their final episode.
With a good political sniffer, Hillary is “leaving her scent” on the Democrat political playing field with her silly provative, attention-grabbing statements, like about Trump being responsible for the heat – meaningless diversions designed to Insert her in the minds of those thinking “what if Biden is convicted?”
Kamala knows already that she is not next in line should old Joe go.
So those dems who want Joe to Go are now at odds with those who want Hillary.
The GOP needs to know how to work those 2 forces – and albeit currently against each other, theh will eventually come together to inject as much chaos and damage to Trump as possible.
Kennedy us a wild card here, but the HOP needs their own ace cards to expose the villains behind the curtains and media microphones
DeSantis campaigned in Iowa and was booed. No matter how the Governor of Iowa tried to calm the dissent, the people kept chanting “We want Trump, and would not be silenced.” The Rinos like Pence, Christie, and DeSantis are not gaining support! Don’t you see that the Deep State has even so called Republicans, (actually Rinos,). lined up to take the Republican nomination. Its not working. Ramaswamy however is resonating and his common sense policies are also resonating among Americans.