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This is not the actual Iranian attack.
This is the ‘attack’ prearranged for show between Iran and the Biden administration through backchannels.
It’s an attack that allows Iran to show off that it can reach Israel (look at those lights over the Temple Mount) without inflicting any real damage.
The Biden administration has already made it clear that it will oppose any Israeli response. There will be public condemnations and warnings about escalating the conflict further.
So does that mean it’s over? No.
Iran did burn up some resources doing this, but apart from the morale boost of doing it, it set out to test US and Israeli defenses. And the defenses did what they were supposed to.
However had Iran actually been trying to launch a serious attack, it would have used its Hezbollah, Houthi, Iraqi, and whatever is left of its Hamas proxies to saturate local air defenses.
The Oct 7 attacks, planned by an Iranian IRGC general who was killed in the Israeli strikes on a terror target in Damascus, carefully analyzed Israel’s border and air defenses, its infrastructure, command and control in search of weaknesses to exploit. And did so effectively. That is what a serious attack would have done. And this was not it.
So what will Iran do next?
Iran is not currently ready for a regional war and it prefers to use its proxies to do its dirty work for it until that day comes. Oct 7 was an example of that, so were the Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and the Iraqi Shiite attacks on a U.S. base in Jordan that killed three servicemembers.
But Iran will do things beyond this light show which was largely meant to reassure the Biden administration that its “diplomatic tools” have successfully solved the problem. That’s an illusion that Iran has used to allow it to build up its nuclear weapons program, to sow dragon’s teeth around the region and to cut off international shipping at will.
The Iranian regime knows that America could destroy it. It also learned under Obama that its greatest defense is convincing D.C. elites that diplomacy will successfully deescalate any conflicts with the regime.
By starting a crisis and then allowing itself to be talked into standing down a little bit, before beginning the cycle again, Iran has been able to expand its sphere of influence without paying a price. It will strike more seriously, but it will do so in a way that will allow it to go on manipulating its diplomatic collaborators in D.C. and building power in the region.
Thanks for the illuminating commentary. You must have started writing the minute Shabbat was over.
Last night at about 12 midnight here in Jerusalem, I was prepared for the “big one” to start, so when I got up this morning and found everything functioning “normally”, I was quite surprised. (I thought I was going to have at least one day off of work.) Your explanation of what is really going on is very enlightening.
(Of course, what is “really really going on” requires much deeper analysis.)
The whole affair stinks of The Kenyan.
The Islamic Mullah Iranian regime should have been decapitated by President Carter in 1979 when the Islamic depraved psychopaths overturned the Shah, and took 52 US hostages for 444 days in Tehran.
But Carter was too much of a chicken — sh!!!!t coward to have the wisdom or the courage to do it.
Carter, like Biden now, had no idea of what the correct and right and moral thing to do was.
So for almost 50 years now the depraved psychopathic murderous Islamic blackmailing and terrorism has just continued with no effective response from America and the West.
What a disgrace.
Decapitate Iran !!! … What the hell are you idiot blowhard politicians waiting for ??? !!!!
“The Asshole Kenyan”
there I fixed it for you.
I hope Israel takes the cork out of the bottle and throws it away. It is time for the Iranian people to change their government before they are vaporized. Same for the U.S.
People should understand that things will wax worse and worse if they remain complacent.
“Attacks like those that unfolded Saturday against Israel from Iran will happen “again and again” and wars in
Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen will never end as long as the ayatollahs remain in charge of Iran.
“So the only solution is regime change,” Harvard Law professor emeritus Alan Dershowitz said on Sunday.
SOMEONE will eventually have to destroy the mullahs – better to get it done NOW (really 40 years ago) before they have nuclear weapons! I do believe if the mullahs and Republican Guards are destroyed or rendered powerless the Iranian people will take care of the rest!
They should have kept the Shah in power.
Yes,the “Shah” was a bit of a dictator but he kept order in Iran. And he wasn’t a mass murderer like his neighbor in Iraq, Uncle Saddam and his psycho sons. So long as you didn’t oppose his regime he left people alone. Iran was a modern country back then. The “order” in Iran now is international terrorism, and has been for twenty five years.
It looks like Netanyahu in Israel may be about to end that long streak of terrorism. though.
Make that forty five years. I’m not as good at math as you are. Sometimes when I do it in my head I mess up. I’m good at grocery stores, though I tend to catch the accidental cashier errors.
The overthrow of the Islamic Republic’s murderous mullah regime, by freedom loving indigenous Iranians, can’t happen fast enough.
I think that’s the key to dismantling the US administration’s two pronged attack of both a ‘diplomatic’ plan to destroy Israel and ‘military’ plan that enables the Iranian regime to arm itself to the teeth while also glutting the Hamas proxy with ‘humanitarian’ aid and erasing the existence of hostages.
Israel’s victory over the mullahs and their proxies inspire the Iranian people to will break the yoke of tyranny around their necks. Iranians want their country back. Their resistance leaders say that only Israel supports them in their yearning for freedom.
But American policy clearly has not. American policy aids, abets and grotesquely funds terror. America’s plan will crumble if the mothership of terror is destroyed.
Persians are indigenous to the land. Arabs who rule, making up 3% of the population, are not. Persians were Zoroastrian; not Muslim. They were conquered and partially islamicized by invading Arabs. That sounds familiar.
Farsi is the national language, not Arabic.
The overthrow of the regime in Iran can’t happen soon enough.
And the voting out of the US government that supports that regime can’t happen soon enough.
I just want to quote and repeat for emphasis ….
” The overthrow of the regime in Iran can’t happen soon enough.
And the voting out of the US government that supports that regime can’t happen soon enough.”
You got it right.
Let’s see if the blowhard politicians can get it right.
Decapitate the depraved psychopathic murderous berserk Iranian Islamic regime … NOW.
Biden knows what he can do with his appeasement strategy. What a disgrace, telling Israel to back down and try to de-escalate. We will support Israel no matter what happens to America and being destroyed from within. To our last breath we will bless Israel and stand for her rights and freedoms! Sick of traitors yet! The people of Iran have had it with the Mulllahs and the government as well. It matters not what man does because the judgment day is coming soon on these evil regimes. God has had it too!
I do not understand why any nation cares what the U.S. or anyone else thinks. Israel may do anything she wishes, and no one will be able to stop her. “Sticks and stones may break my bones….”
I realize my thought is not as well-informed as I should like, but truly I am mystified by Israel’s restraint. However, where Israel is concerned. there is always a supernatural component and this may be one of the secret things that belong solely to the LORD. See Deut. 29:29 and Romans 11:33.
Not sure about the Supernatural reference, but I do know that the Israelis are a civilized and decent people. They have always tried to spare the children and innocent families after the endless attacks on their own people from the Muslim Arabs year after bloody year . And what did they get for it? OCT 7th !!! Now the Israelis will do what they have to do to save the future of Israel, just as the majority of Americans would do. It’s their call. May God watch over them all….
Exactly correct.
Gee, it took Biden a few hours to crater and urge (see, “demand”) Israel not retaliate. He’s got a backbone of steel, doesn’t he?
Jihad Joe has a steel bone up his butt. A big black dick.
Obviously, I was worried that one of those projectiles was a nuke. I must have been watching Newsmax for an hour and a half before anyone mentioned that possibility. The question of Iranian nukes went to someone who seemed to know what he was talking about,. He acknowledged that Iran probably has a nuke (thank you!) but he said they wont have a way of delivering it for about a year.
Iran needs to be nuked. Or have its mullah headquarters and Revolutionary Guard” headquarters bombed, anyway.
Iran attacked the civilian population of Israel. This is very serious. What would have happened if the defense technology at play did not work or was nonexistent ? The world has to wake up and understand that after the horrific mass murder last October, just maybe the Jews have had enough of the way they have been treated all through history. Nothing has changed for them except now they have Nuclear Weapons and for very good reasons.
They are saving the serious attack?
How smart is that strategy going to be if the Mullah’s nuclear project is now taken out? Or the miserable regime decapitated altogether? Which is what Israel should now commence. What better chance to end this disgusting, jihad metastasizing, little girl murdering, islamofascist abomination?
Best analysis I’ve read.
I enjoyed watching the videos of jets taking out the drones. I had forgotten about that tactic.
Reminded me of Spitfires shooting down V-1 rockets in WW2. The Spitfires had to use special tactics, first getting to high altitude, then diving to get enough speed to catch the V-1 rockets.
Brits anywhere near our age are really proud of those Spitfire pilots and their planes. The Battle of Britain was bad ass. Those Spitfires weren’t P 51 Mustangs, not even close, but the pilots were brave.
Thanks, Daniel, for expressing and corroborating what I had suspected since yesterday’s onslaught began. I think you’re right on the money.
What happens to the world if Iran is not curtailed? (Yes, Iran has actually been funded to do what its doing.) When theres a radical regime that is uncontrolled and believes in using nuclear weapons to get rid of anyone they hate, then every nation is at risk, not just Israel. Don’t believe that this is just Israel’s problem because that is not reality! Washington has been living in a dream world that the elites will escape all this war. There will be no place to hide if we start having nuclear wars, and living in bunkers, that will be some life. See how depraved individuals have been destroying God’s creation and world for years.
That light show sure fooled me. I thought innocent people were murdered.
Iranians. I knew a bunch of them when I lived in Orange County, California. My dentist was Iranian. His nurses had the hots for me and my girl would get really pissed off. Women don’t take out their anger on other women, you know, they take it out on YOU. All the Iranians I met in OC were nice except one. He was a dick and I had to threaten him once. I met a nice guy once who had to go back there for some family business and told him to be careful. He said he keeps his head down over there and doesn’t draw attention to himself. He said you don’t want to attract attention over there. I thought he was brave. Iranian food isn’t bad. A lot of rice and humus but O.K.
Netanyahu swears he has date to invade Rafah. and take out Iran’s Hamas proxies. I hope he does it. Dickless Joe and his impotent handlers can’t do shit against him. A pack of lesbians. When it comes right down to it, what can a lezzie do against you? Nothing.
Yeah, Iran isn’t ready for a regional war or any other kind of war. It never has been. The days of the fake Persian Empire are long over. It was always a loose collection of corrupt satrapies back in its heyday and it’s a joke now.
If Trump were President
I had an Iranian girl as a substitute for the hygienist at the dentist once. She conned me into getting an unnecessary X-ray. I guess she was getting a commission for that 🙂
Ha ha! I hope you at least got a hand-job out of the deal.
Iran announced the attack 6 hours before it made it to Israel – that tells me that it was staged so Iran could claim honor. If Israel responds Iran will collapse like a house of cards
Israel is attacked by multiple enemies in the REGION, but that is not called REGIONAL war. Only if Israel strikes back is it called REGIONAL war. That is Biden’s rationale for preserving Israel as a target.
BTW, Turkey is reporting that Biden gave Iran the green light for the attack on Israel. Don’t know if that is true, although it is being reported by The Jerusalem Post, but, having green lit a Russian movement into Ukraine, that would be of a piece for the unprincipled dope.
This is the window of time for neutralizing the Iranian nuclear program. Right now, Israel commands a degree of world sympathy, and everyone expects retaliation, not unlike the situation on Oct. 8th. Preventing Iran from achieving this nuclear capability is paramount — even more pressing than interdicting their terrorist cells and proxy groups. Once Iran has nukes the rest of the world will avoid provoking them too much, like the deference shown to Russia and Putin. The Iranians are the world’s number one state sponsor of terror attacks. If they can behave with impunity because they can be assumed to possess nuclear-armed ballistic missiles
then no nation is safely out of reach.
Your claim it was a back channel setup between the US and Iran is vast. Prove it beyond speculation!
Valerie June Jarrett.
When she’s in the White House, Iran is in the picture.
Yes. Israel needs to win in Gaza before the Selection. And they need to do something about proxies in the West Bank as well. Any plan that delays their ability bring stability on Bibi’s terms before the Democrats get a free hand to do what they will …
… will likely guarantee a more coordinated response supported by Russian arms, Muslim neighbors acquiescence, and American tax dollars.
Daniel is spot on. There is this report out of the Jerusalem Post: Iran informed Turkey in advance of its planned operation against Israel, a Turkish diplomatic source told Reuters on Sunday, adding that Washington had conveyed to Tehran via Ankara that any action it took had to be “within certain limits.” [See Andrea Widburg’s article “A Turkish source says Biden green-lit Iran’s attack on Israel” on Apr 14. for more background.] This is the same kind of green light that Biden signaled to Putin before he invaded Ukraine. Biden is guilty of treason — giving aid (literally) and comfort to our enemies in time of war.