Republicans tend not to believe that Biden will run again. So do a lot of other people.

Except that Biden has repeatedly made it clear that, no matter how implausible it may seem, he will run again. Even if he has to crawl to run.

President Biden has told former President Obama that he is planning to run for reelection in 2024, two sources tell The Hill.  

The admission to Obama is the latest indication that Biden is likely to run for a second term, something the president has spoken about publicly.  

“[Biden] wants to run and he’s clearly letting everyone know,” said one of the two sources familiar with the conversations between Obama and Biden.  

In 2016, Obama talked Biden out of running against Hillary. Bringing the two men together may have had the subtext of Obama trying to talk Biden out of running again. But considering the results, Hillary lost and Biden won, his former VP has the practical argument on his side. Not to mention that Obama’s favored candidate in 2020, Deval Patrick, whom Obama saw as a mini-me, catastrophically face-planted. 

If anything, Biden had a chance to rub Obama’s face in it.

“I believe he thinks he’s the only one who can beat Trump. I don’t think he thinks there’s anyone in the Democratic party who can beat Trump and that’s the biggest factor,” the source familiar with the Obama-Biden talks said.   

Does he really believe that? Or is that just a convenient argument. A black swan event isn’t an effective candidacy. Biden sat in his basement while the country fell apart and collected the winnings. The Democrats could have run anyone, or almost anyone barring Kamala Harris, with the same outcome.

But it’s Biden’s ticket. His only ticket.

And he’s going to desperately cling to it.