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The rebel offensive came at a moment of relative weakness for three of Syria’s most important supporters. Iran’s ability to help has been curtailed by its conflict with Israel; Russia’s military has been sapped by its invasion of Ukraine; and Hezbollah, which had previously supplied fighters to aid the Assad government’s fight against the Islamic State, has been battered badly by its own war with Israel.
By pulling out of Syria all of its civilian and military personnel (including two generals who escaped to Iraq just in time to avoid capture or worse), Iran demonstrated to Assad that Iran not be aiding him to remain in power. The wretched performance of the Syrian army in city after city did not instill confidence in others — Iran and Russia — that any help they might have given would be enough. And neither country, even if it had had some residual faith in the Syrian Army, was in a condition to provide such help if it wanted to. Russia had done some minor bombing in Aleppo, but most of its planes in Syria were sent back months ago to help in the war against Ukraine. And Russia could not spare any soldiers to fight on the ground in Syria. Moscow has severe recruitment problems — many young Russians subject to the draft have left the country — and has had to hire at least 12,000 North Korean soldiers as an emergency measure.
Nor was Iran in a position to help out Assad. It has been weakened by recent Israeli attacks that destroyed many of its anti-missile defense systems, reduced to rubble its ballistic missile plants, and devastated as well a secret nuclear research facility at Parchin. Right now Tehran has to wonder whether, and when, Israel will launch an attack on its nuclear program. Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has just announced on December 7 that Iran is “dramatically” accelerating its enrichment of uranium to up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% level that is weapons grade. Israel must now be factoring that unsettling news into its own calculations — perhaps it cannot wait until Trump assumes office, but will have to act against Iran’s nuclear program now. And the Iranians, of course, are wondering whether Israel will be prompted to unleash such an attack. In such a threatening environment, Iran was not about to send its own men and weapons to help out Assad’s failing army.
And then there is Hezbollah. In the last few months, Israel has devastated the Lebanese Shi’a group. It has killed 4,000 of its fighters and wounded, by means of the “exploding pagers” and “exploding walkie-talkies,” several thousand more so severely that they can no longer fight. The IDF has decapitated the entire leadership of Hezbollah, including its leader Hassan Nasrallah and his successor Hashem Safieddine. It has killed both the commander and the deputy commander of the Radwan Force, Hezbollah’s most elite unit. It has killed dozens of Hezbollah commanders. It has confiscated 155,000 weapons. It has reduced Hezbollah’s arsenal of weapons to 20% of what it possessed before the war. In short, Hezbollah was in no condition to do more than send a handful of soldiers to Homs to act as what Hezbollah described as “supervising forces” — presumably to advise, and direct, the Syrian soldiers who were in the city but rudderless. Obviously they were ineffective; Homs fell within a day or two, just like Aleppo, Hama, Daraa, and now Damascus. It will be fascinating to see what the Sunni jihadis do to any Hezbollah troops they capture.
Assad is now in flight, with his winsome wife, who once graced the cover of Vogue (how have the mighty fallen), presumably to Iran, the only country where he is likely to be given shelter. One wonders where Assad has stashed the tens of billions of dollars he “earned” from his grand theft of the Syrian treasury, and from the sale of fentanyl made in Syrian factories, the pills the being delivered by Hezbollah members to drug traffickers in Europe and the rich Gulf states of the Gulf.
Now the rebels rule in Damascus. But will these groups continue to cohere, given how various are their views? Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s leader, Mohamed al-Jolani, insists the group has broken with its Islamic jihadist, Al-Qaeda-connected past. We’ll have to see if this is taqiyya or the truth. Another major group in the anti-Assad coalition is the Free Syrian Army, a secular and democratic group. One of its senior commanders just gave an interview to the Times of Israel, claiming that he hoped now for friendly relations with Israel, that he was mindful of, and grateful for, the role Israel had played in weakening both Hezbollah and Iran, Assad’s main allies. If that view of Israel were to prevail among Syria’s new rulers, that could refashion the Middle East.
It just goes to show that Syria remains dangerous, and the racists who were saying it was safe enough to deport all refugees back were 100% wrong as always.
bibi’s one year and going war:
You say that but have nothing to say when Muslim terrorists slaughter innocent Jewish women and children. Yet your muslim amigos don’t have the balls to attack Jewish men. Why is that? Are they all punks and sissies? Speak up or STFU.
Troll’s garbage.
Anyone who claims to have been persecuted under the Assad regime ought logically to be safer as a result of what has occurred. The only exception might be Shia Muslims with links to Iran.. Besides which, policies can’t be shaped by what might happen unless there’s a reasonable likelihood that it will, otherwise my own country would have to tell migrants that we are an unsafe place for them because a tsunami in Cornwall might cause flooding further East (there has never yet been a tsunami in Cornwall, BTW).
…aaand Israel’s already bombing Syria. No opportunity they won’t use to slaughter.
slaughter the weapon facilities, missle launchers, and airports used by the type of rapist murderers and baby roasters that you, who dare to comment here, so deeply and devotedly admire.
If only there were a block or report button for anti-Semitic, blood thirsty taqiya ( liar) Hamas-supporting, murderous trash like you .
What we have here is a classic Jew hating jerk.
Killing terrorists is a global public service. Israel has been busy taking out the Islamo-trash, but by just reading your croaking here, the job’s not done.
Assad fell. Imagine a World without the Mullah’s of Iran, their proxies…. and Democrats.
The World has a chance to change for the better with Trump’s, “Speak Softly but carry a Big Stick.” The Abraham Accords will add new members. If the new Syrian leaders want to join a civilized world, here’s their chance. (I saw an interview with the rebel leader, he sounded like a Moderate. He wants Democratic institutions and diverse. We’ll see if he reneges and goes full-blown Muslim terrorist regime ruling with an Iron Hand!) Then Lebanon getting rid of Hezbollah. Gaza… Hamas. Egypt… Muslim Brotherhood. AND YET, NONE OF THESE GROUPS WOULD EXIST IF NOT FOR IRAN’S MULLAHS! SOLUTION: PEOPLE POWER!
Since 1979, the World lets Iran do as they wish because Iran will shut off the pumps… aka OIL BLACKMAIL! Trump was Drilling Here… Drilling Now and that was a major threat to OPEC, especially the Saudi’s. Russian oil and gas will now be a target of Trump. He won’t buy a drop from Venezuela. China will try to go around sanctions, but oil tankers are hard to hide. Now it looks like Russia, China, and Iran, are on the verge of major change too. Will their youth allow their country to stagnate, or will they look over the wall to see greener pastures? The Internet is unstoppable, and they see a better future is possible.
Trump’s victory was cheered worldwide. He’s the focus of the Norte Dame re-opening. Cameras were focused on him while meeting world leaders.
MAKE (their country) Great Again. Now if only the Democrats would join in instead of seeking ways to frame Trump and to bog him down with more Hoaxes! The American people will see that it is the Democrats who also need to go the way of the World’s Dictators and the Mullahs!
Good points, but with a huge caveat.
When Sleepy Joe pulled the rug out from our allies in Afghanistan, he demonstrated that the benefits of a good administration, can (and will) be quickly nullified when a chickenshit Democrat cheats his way in office.
Just as the beneficial pipeline is no longer feasible due to Sleepy’s damage, the same with other agreements we make with allies.
They know, after the Afghanistan betrayal, that any agreement with the U.S. will eventually be discarded if not outright reversed.
The damage Sleazy Biden did in his foreign policy cannot be overstated.
Joe Biden, America’s first mentally retarded president, is a mere puppet of America’s first Islamist president, Barack Hussein Osama.
One action that the incoming Trump administration can take on Day One is to cancel the previous executive orders that stopped the Keystone XL pipeline and drilling permits.
As a leading oil producer, the United States can break the price of oil, and thus deprive Iran and Russia, as well as Hamas, Hezbollah, Al Qaida, and ISIS, of the revenue they need to run their war machines.
Doing so would also go a long way toward lowering inflation as well, not only because of increased supply, but also because depriving our enemies of oil revenue takes a lot of risk out of the equation.
I fully agree.
What’s unfortunate is al work was undone, equipment & materials sold off(or left to rot), and deals were canceled.
The chickenshit Sleepy administration did more damage to us than most people perceive. It’ll be a long road to undo that damage.
Don’t worry, in that part of the world you can bet that another muslim turd will soon surface. The only question is: will it be a big one or a little one? The big ones hang around much longer just like Assad did. But eventually, they’ll wear down and be replaced by a new big turd.
Such are the ways of primitive muslim savages who constantly murder and inflict violence on their own people for the sake of power & control. It’s been on going for thousands of years with no end in sight.
No doubt. Assad deserves a well earned trip to the land of insufficient light.
That said, it would be naïve to assume Syria will suddenly become an outpost for Swedish Gays to vaca and enjoy the underage sex workers.
More likely many Syrians will be on the menu now that Assad has fallen. I’m sure that will be ‘better’ for the Global Order … just like we improved Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan, Somalia, Yemen, Oman, etc. etc. etc.
Assad has gone to Russia. I’m surprised that the author didn’t know that. Israel does.
Surely you jest. Where else could he have gone? Him getting thrown out of power schlonged the Iranians big time. China and North Korea were also out and he surely would’ve been assassinated in any other muslim country he went to. Russia was his only viable option.
And you can beat that when the Russians get tired of Assad, he will be the unfortunate victim of a sudden and mysterious fatal accident (that’s happens a lot Russia) for which the FSB will investigate until pigs fly and hell freezes over after which their investigation report is released to the public.
Assad might think he’s safe in Russia, but I’d bet real money he doesn’t last two years, where the money has been stashed will pay a huge part in that & I’d say if it was Russia, it’ll only be not too long before Vladimir get his mitts on it ..
He’ll be safe if he underwrites Russia’s failing military – or maybe that should be for as long as he underwrites Russia’s failing military.
Hopefully Syria will be broken into several countries like Yugoslavia after the death of Tito
That’s a dangerous solution. You’re suggesting that ISIS, Al Qaeda, Hezbollah et al, all get a piece of Syria.
Wait….! I just had an epiphany! On second thought, that might not be a bad idea after all. That puts all the jihadists cockroaches in one place (re: country)!
Well hell’s bells!! Shazam!!! We could stomp on them all at once by non-stop carpet bombing the shiite out of the entire country! Ain’t nobody can carpet bomb like the US military can!!
And then get the pro-Palestinian university encampments to celebrate how much more ethical this is than the elaborate care that Israel takes to avoid civilian deaths.
There’s room for lots of speculation. The Israeli PM looked cautiously optimistic in a video clip -Israel retook Mount Hebron- important for security. All in all he’s been a hero dealing with the 10/7 unspeakable atrocities and a war he never wanted, with worldwide Jew-hate (as we can see even here in a commenter), a duplicitous USA under Biden-Obama, and an Israeli left allied with the US left.
Islam is a violent conquest oriented political system and religion -in its current form. So can it be a good neighbor? With Taqiya, one never knows.
A bit off topic but this used to be a historic day.
Hey Mr Atheist Sec of State. What happened to Genocide Prevention Day (Dec 9)? I guess you guys thought it was a tad hypocritical that the people most against genocide (which they refer to as holocaust) are the same people doing a new version that makes the one in 40s a walk in the park.
https://www.state.gov/a-call-to-prevent-genocide/
If Hamas and Hezbollah are nations, then Israel is genocidal. Otherwise, there is simply no way that fighting a defensive war by legitimate means, whilst going to extreme lengths to avoid civilian deaths constitutes genocide. You could always write to the editors of the Oxford English Dictionary with your new definition:
GENOCIDE Failure to manifest extreme passivity in the face of unannounced invasion by horde of sadists.
When I asked an Indonesian Muslim if the good Muslim people of Aceh were grateful for the aid and medical help that the USA provided for them following the 2004 tsunami he said no. Asking for gratitude from radical Muslims is like asking for “water from the Moon!”
1. Russia and Iran both told Assad they would send soldiers to defeat the terrorists. For some reason Assad hesitated. I think they had him threatened,threat by Syrian traitors. Russia and Iran could have
sent troops without Assad’s permission,but it would have been breaking UN law.They didn’t want to.
2. The leader of AlQaida and ISIS,which has a different name, but is the same thing, is JOLANI. This man:
a. Is guilty of authorizing the CUTTING OFF of the heads of people.They say he even personally did it.
b. He is in the US list of terrorists and has a BOUNTY of 10 MILLION dollars.
c.He joined Al-Qaida in Irak and killed AMERICAN soldiers.
d. Now the US is saying it is considering eliminating the 10 million dollar bounty on Jolani.
e. Israel was bombing Syrian military positions,helping the terrorists.
f. LAVROV,foreign minister of Russia has said they continue to recognize Assad as the legitimate president.
Here is the brilliant analysis by Scott Ritter on it all:
Syria has a population of 25 million, and 6 million outside who are refugees.
The Islamic terrorists who have conquered Syria with arms and money supplied by the Globalists and others like Turkey are the same ones who a few years ago
practiced SEXUAL SLAVERY of Yazidi women. An army of 15,000 to 20,000,some of them Uyghurs from China. Terrorists from many different lands,few are Syrian.
CNN,the pro-Soros channel, recently interviewed JOLANI, the head of those terrorists.CNN was saying he was the good guy.
20% of Syrians are CHRISTIAN, they will be persecuted by the Al-Qaida,ISIS terrorists.
Wondering how much choice the Uyghurs had – though not sure where China was in the jihad on the Yazidis – i.e., were the Uyghurs pressed men, or were they involved in Al Qaeda or IS as a (bad) way out of oppression? This is a side issue, though, and does not nullify your points.
The question, however, is “who has control of Assad’s chemical weapons?”
Total disinformation.
1. There is ZERO credible provable evidence that there are N.Korean soldiers in the Ukraine fighting for Russia other than western ‘claims’/propaganda.
2. Assad did not flee to Iran. He fled to Russia.
I have to wonder why students are not taught at the 8th grade level in these hell holes Muslim majority countries something along that famous statement by American author Mark Twain: “Loyalty to your
nation – always. Loyalty to a government – when it deserves it.”
I know there is no “separation of church and state” in these Islamic hell hole countries, but what happened to free will? And why do the nations of the world who have
separation of church and state have anything to do with these Islamic hell hole countries? They can buy oil from other sources!