Crowds of protesters are celebrating in the streets of Sanaa following President Saleh’s departure to Saudi Arabia for medical treatment after three rockets struck his palace. Their cheers may be premature, as he has given no indication that he will give up his fight to stay in power. The momentum does seem to be on the side of the opposition, but serious concerns linger about what a post-Saleh Yemen will look like.
Fierce fighting broke out in Yemen after President Saleh backed out of a deal to leave office at the last minute for the third time. The violence ultimately resulted in the firing of three rockets at the presidential palace, killing 11 people. Saleh suffered serious enough injuries that he had to go to Riyadh for surgery. The prime minister, two deputy prime ministers and the speakers of both chambers in parliament also had to go to Saudi Arabia. Saleh has blamed tribesmen loyal to Sheikh Sadiq Ahmar for the attack.
The opposition is enthused with Saleh’s departure. Mohammed Qahtan, the political director of Islah, the Islamist party, said, “We see this as the beginning of the end of this tyrannical and corrupt regime.” However, the vice president says Saleh will return “in a few days.” His return would be met with mass protests, and these protests will result in violent suppression. This would probably result in an end to the ceasefire that was recently agreed upon. Civil war will become more likely than ever.
Saleh’s Republican Guards and special forces, which are led by his son, amount to about 50-60,000 soldiers. Sheikh Ahmar leads the powerful Hashid tribe, and has popular support on his side. The opposition also has General Ali Mohsen, the country’s most powerful general, on its side after he defected in response to attacks on protesters. He was called the “second most powerful man in Yemen” in a U.S. diplomatic cable.
General Mohsen leads the 1st Armored Division, and oversees 40,000 men. He controls the western portion of Sanaa, and he hasn’t ordered his forces to try to forcefully push Saleh out of power yet. About half of the country’s generals have followed his lead in abandoning the regime. It is unlikely that Saleh could win a civil war if the opposition is willing to fully fight one, but he has enough forces to try to fight to a bloody standstill. A key question moving forward is how much bloodshed his own Republican Guards are willing to cause to preserve his power.
The problem facing the West is that Saleh will probably be replaced by Islamists, and it will be very difficult to keep the country united under one authority. The Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in the north have fought both Saleh and the tribes opposed to them as they fight for autonomy or even independence. There is a secessionist movement in the south, and Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has 300 to 500 fighters in Abyan, Shabwan and Marib Provinces that are trying to expand their base. Anwar al-Awlaki is a member of a powerful and well-armed tribe.
The Joint Meetings Parties, which is an umbrella of opposition political parties, will have difficulty working together in Saleh’s absence. They have been described as “a motley bunch of Islamists, Socialists and Arab nationalists united only by their common enemy.” In this coalition, the dominant party is Islah, the Muslim Brotherhood’s affiliate in Yemen that enjoys the support of the Salafists. Sheikh Ahmar’s brother is a leader in the party, and General Mohsen is known to be a hardline Islamist supporter of Islah. One of the group’s top leaders is Sheikh Abdul-Majid Zindani, who openly calls for creating an Islamic state. Sheikh Zindani has also been sanctioned by the U.S. for his ties to Al-Qaeda, and he is also connected to Hamas and Sheikh Yousef al-Qaradawi.
The opposition claims that Saleh has tolerated Al-Qaeda’s presence to justify his rule, and that the terrorist group could be destroyed in months. However, this would require tackling the powerful al-Awlaki tribe. It seems very unlikely that a post-Saleh government would make waging war on Al-Qaeda a top priority with all of the problems and instability it must first address. An offensive would also lack popular support, as many Yemenis don’t even believe the group exists.
The instability in Yemen is allowing Al-Qaeda to grow. The terrorist group has now taken over the cities of Zinjibar and Azzan. Yemeni government officials and the state press previously said the group took over Abyan Province and declared it an “Islamic Emirate,” but doubts have been expressed about the claim. The Islamic militants involved in that incident have long-standing ties to the Saleh regime. Whatever the truth is, it is undeniable that Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula is benefiting from the instability. Michael Leiter, head of the National Counterterrorism Center, said that this Al-Qaeda affiliate poses “probably the most significant risk to the U.S. homeland.”
For Al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood, the future of Yemen is bright.
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