The regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin is living on borrowed time. The tide of history is turning, and everything from Ukraine’s advances on the battlefield to the West’s enduring unity and resolve in the face of Putin’s aggression points to 2023 being a decisive year. If the West holds firm, Putin’s regime will likely collapse in the near future.
Yet some of Ukraine’s key partners continue to resist supplying Kyiv with the weapons it needs to deliver the knockout punch. The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden in particular seems afraid of the chaos that could accompany a decisive Kremlin defeat. It has declined to send the tanks, long-range missile systems, and drones that would allow Ukrainian forces to take the fight to their attackers, reclaim their territory, and end the war. The end of Putin’s tyrannical rule will indeed radically change Russia (and the rest of the world)—but not in the way the White House thinks. Rather than destabilizing Russia and its neighbors, a Ukrainian victory would eliminate a powerful revanchist force and boost the cause of democracy worldwide.
Pro-democracy Russians who reject the totalitarian Putin regime—a group to which the authors belong—are doing what they can to help Ukraine liberate all occupied territories and restore its territorial integrity in accordance with the internationally recognized borders of 1991. We are also planning for the day after Putin. The Russian Action Committee, a coalition of opposition groups in exile that we co-founded in May 2022, aims to ensure that Ukraine is justly compensated for the damage caused by Putin’s aggression, that all war criminals are held accountable, and that Russia is transformed from a rogue dictatorship into a parliamentary federal republic. The looming end of Putin’s reign need not be feared, in other words; it should be welcomed with open arms.
UNFOUNDED FEARS
Putin’s effort to restore Russia’s lost empire is destined to fail. The moment is therefore ripe for a transition to democracy and a devolution of power to the regional levels. But for such a political transformation to take place, Putin must be defeated militarily in Ukraine. A decisive loss on the battlefield would pierce Putin’s aura of invincibility and expose him as the architect of a failing state, making his regime vulnerable to challenge from within.
The West, and above all the United States, is capable of providing the military and financial support to hasten the inevitable and propel Ukraine to a speedy victory. But the Biden administration still hasn’t coalesced around a clear endgame for the war, and some U.S. officials have suggested that Kyiv should consider giving up part of its territory in pursuit of peace—suggestions that are not reassuring. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has made it clear that the Ukrainian people will never accept such a deal. Any territorial concessions made to Putin will inevitably lead to another war down the road.
At the root of Washington’s unwillingness to supply the necessary weapons lies a fear of the potential consequences of decisively defeating Russia in Ukraine. Many in the Biden administration believe that Putin’s downfall could trigger the collapse of Russia, plunging the nuclear-armed state into chaos and potentially strengthening China.
But such fears are overstated. The risk of a Russian collapse is, of course, real. But it is greater with Putin in office—pushing the country in an ever more centralized and militarized direction—than it would be under a democratic, federal regime. The longer the current regime remains in power, the greater the risk of an unpredictable rupture. Putin’s aggression has exposed the inherent instability of his model of government, which is built on the need to confront foreign enemies. The Kremlin Mafia, having turned Russia into a staging ground for its military plans, has already threatened to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. It is not the collapse of Putin’s regime that Washington should fear, therefore, but its continued survival.
For nearly two decades, some Western pundits have claimed that the Russian people will never accept democracy and that Russia is doomed to revanchism. Indeed, Putin’s propaganda has managed to instill in a sizable segment of Russian society the view that Western values are entirely alien to Russia. But economic integration with the West has enabled other countries to overcome a fascist heritage. And deeper integration with Europe, coupled with the conditional easing of Western sanctions, could help Russia do the same.
In the aftermath of Putin’s military defeat, Russia would have to choose: either become a vassal of China or begin reintegrating with Europe (having first justly compensated Ukraine for the damage inflicted during the war and punished those guilty of war crimes). For the majority of Russians, the choice in favor of peace, freedom, and flourishing would be obvious—and made even more so by the rapid reconstruction of Ukraine.
HOPE OVER FEAR
Putin’s military defeat would help catalyze a political transformation in Russia, making it possible for those seeking a brighter future to dismantle the old regime and forge a new political reality. The Russian Action Committee has laid out a blueprint for this transformation, aiming to reestablish the Russian state “on the principles of the rule of law, federalism, parliamentarism, a clear separation of powers and prioritizing human rights and freedoms over abstract ‘state interests.’ ” Our vision is for Russia to become a parliamentary republic and a federal state with only limited centralized powers (those necessary to conduct foreign and defense policy and protect citizens’ rights) and much stronger regional governments.
Getting there will take time. Within two years of the dissolution of Putin’s regime, Russians would elect a constituent assembly to adopt a new constitution and determine a new system of regional bodies. But in the short term, before that assembly could be seated, a transitional state council with legislative powers would be needed to oversee a temporary technocratic government. Its nucleus would be composed of Russians committed to the rule of law, those who have publicly disavowed Putin’s war and his illegitimate regime. Most have been forced into exile, where we have been free to organize and create a virtual civil society in absentia. Such preparations will enable us to act swiftly and work with the Western powers whose cooperation the new Russian government will need to stabilize the economy.
Immediately after assuming power, the state council would conclude a peace agreement with Ukraine, recognizing the country’s 1991 borders and justly compensating it for the damage caused by Putin’s war. The state council would also formally reject the imperial policies of the Putin regime, both within Russia and abroad, including by ceasing all formal and informal support for pro-Russian entities in the countries of the former Soviet Union. And it would end Russia’s long-running confrontation with the West, transitioning instead to a foreign policy based on peace, partnership, and integration into Euro-Atlantic institutions.
On the home front, the state council would begin to demilitarize Russia, reducing the size of the armed forces and by extension the cost of their maintenance. It would also dissolve the organs of Putin’s police state, including the repressive Federal Security Service and Center for Combating Extremism, and repeal all repressive laws adopted during Putin’s rule. All political prisoners would be released and fully rehabilitated, and a broader amnesty program would be adopted to reduce the overall number of prisoners in Russia.
At the federal level, the state council would pursue lustration, conducting open and thorough investigations of former officials to disqualify those responsible for the prior regime’s abuses. In addition, it would liquidate all political parties and public organizations that supported the invasion of Ukraine, so that they cannot interfere with the construction of a new Russia. At the same time, the council would liberalize electoral laws, simplify the process for registering political parties, and scrap Putin-era restrictions on rallies, strikes, and demonstrations.
The state council would also begin the process of decentralizing the country, transferring broad powers to the regions, including in the budgetary sphere. Such reforms would weaken Russia’s all-powerful imperial center: if the federal government does not have total control over state finances, then it won’t have the means to wage military adventures.
Finally, the council would ensure that war criminals and senior officials from Putin’s regime were held accountable. Those responsible for the worst war crimes would be tried in an international tribunal, and Russia itself would try the rest. To do so, it would need to draw a clear line between war criminals and former regime operatives—offering various forms of compromise with the latter to better assure a peaceful transition.
This is a make-or-break moment for Ukraine. Biden can turn the tide in Kyiv’s favor by backing up his declarations of support with the delivery of tanks and long-range weaponry. He can also hasten the demise of Putin’s regime, opening up the possibility of a democratic future for Russia and demonstrating to the world the folly of military aggression. The United States cannot let its fears stand in the way of Ukraine’s hopes.
GARRY KASPAROV is Chair of the Human Rights Foundation, Co-Founder of the Russian Action Committee, and a former world chess champion.
MIKHAIL KHODORKOVSKY is Co-Founder of the Russian Action Committee and a former political prisoner in Russia.
This article first appeared in Foreign Affairs.
“ The West, and above all the United States, is capable of providing the military and financial support to hasten the inevitable and propel Ukraine to a speedy victory.”
Is this in addition to the billions that have already been given?
Is this in addition to the thousands of NATO troops?
The military industrial complex is being rewarded by Biden and his cronies. Biden’s son was paid $80,000 per month by a Ukrainian company and the moment his dad was anointed Putin invaded, coincidence?
Ooh look an inflation squirrel.
You are talking about the corruption that carried on and prevailed in Ukraine due to the long Russian administration. Since Ukraine got independence they have been wave after wave of anti-corruption events and movements.
No US, British, French, etc military personnel are dying. The only ones dying are Ukrainian women and men civilians in equal numbers, and Ukrainian children plus huge numbers of Ukrainian soldiers. All the west does is give them the means of defence.
Thousands of children have been kidnapped tortured and raped and you bleat about ‘corruption’
If Ukrainians are dying it is because of scum like Soros and the Rockefellers and the Rothschildes and the other globalists who are licking their lips over Russia’s natural resources. Ukraine is corrupt and no amount of glossing over can change that. Blaming the Russians for everything is just as dumb as blaming Trump for everything. The demonic west must not be allowed to defeat Christian Russia.
Almost every SAS soldier is in Ukraine now, almost all military personnel are in or close to Ukraine too. Take a walk around any UK military base and see how empty they are.
Whoa, Front Page Mag. These authors are EU-globalist types rooting for Ukraine.
Russia didn’t invade Ukraine for no reason. If anything, they waited way too long to do so. Russia was provoked by Ukraine’s attempts to join NATO, which would have resulted in Russia being completely surrounded at its western and southern border. The EU wants Russia’s oil and gas. Period.
And who really started all this trouble? Obama, Biden and Soros back in 2014 with the overthrow of President Yanukovich, a Russian Ukrainian. Ukraine has been in a cold civil war since between eastern Russian-speaking and western Ukrainian-speaking citizens. Remember that Ukraine was part of Russia until Khrushchev gave it to western Ukraine as a gift.
Zelensky is a Soros stooge who ran an anti-corruptipn campaign. But when Trump called him about real Biden corruption that Hunter and Joe were involved with Burisma, he ended up getting impeached. Zelensky is evil. Look at the death and destruction he has needlessly brought on his nation. Russia isn’t the problem, the globalist EU is.
Sounds marvelous, but how about addressing the deep corruption in Ukraine, while you are at it. I look forward to responses to this article from Douglas MacGregor, John Mearshimer, and others critical of the whole campaign.
Actually, when I said “you,” I was referring to the authors of the article.
Irene, trying to give you a “like”, but the thumbs up won’t respond! You couldn’t be more correct in your statements!
What is with you, Frontpage? How can you publish such drivel from Kasparov?
Thought you were better and more diligent than that. This is a non-truth.
The roots of the matter go back to Clinton. It was he who allowed Poland, Hungary, and the Czechs into NATO. Then Obama installed MK-41’s in Poland and Romania while backing the Nazi-coup in Ukraine (Maidan Protests) and assured the formation of ISIS in Syria (with the help of Hillary and Kerry) to be an agitator against Russia in the eastern areas of Ukraine. That latter of all that is probably treason. Also, Trump didn’t bring up the Biden issue with Zelenskyy, it’s now documented that it was Zelenskyy who started the convo but they tried to impeach Trump anyway.
“These authors are EU-globalist types rooting for Ukraine.”
China, North Korea, Iran, Syria, etc. are all rooting for Russia.
“Russia didn’t invade Ukraine for no reason.”
Yes they did. Putin has stated numerous times that Ukraine isn’t a real thing and should be reincorporated into Russia.
“Russia was provoked by Ukraine’s attempts to join NATO”
Ukraine is not eligible to join NATO.
“The EU wants Russia’s oil and gas. Period.”
They already have it.
“And who really started all this trouble? Obama, Biden and Soros back in 2014 with the overthrow of President Yanukovich, a Russian Ukrainian”
The Euromaidan “coup” canard was propaganda spread by leftists – it was started by the Communist Party of Ukraine.
Quit falling for Communist propaganda.
“Remember that Crimea was part of Russia until Khrushchev gave it to western Ukraine as a gift.”
You’re historically illiterate. Khrushchev did not give “gifts” to anyone, especially not Zhenbao Island on the border with China.
“Ukraine has been in a cold civil war since between eastern Russian-speaking and western Ukrainian-speaking citizens”
You mean between them and Russian troops operating under false flag pretenses.
“Russia isn’t the problem, the globalist EU is.”
Both are the problem. That Russia hates Soros is no argument whatsoever. Nobody hates globalists more than other globalists.
This is just about the most absurd and delusional propaganda piece I’ve ever read. The Ministry of Truth is hard at work, apparently.
I don’t give a flip about Vlad or his government. Having watched and fought in these political wars , mine was Nam,where kids from farms to main street fight and die for nothing but contrived schemes of power and money that a few evil bastards make billions from I say stop. Kasparov needs to go back to playing board games.
Kasparov is a proven genius. You need to go back to playing tiddlywinks.
and then, I woke up
George Washington’s farewell address would be a great comment to this article:
Kynarion Hellenis
You’re all Greek to me. Washington lived in the age of the horse and buggy. If he had lived in the space age I have no doubt he would have understood the importance of stopping the communists.
You supporters of Russia have yet to come up with a good argument for supporting this evil war.
Russia is no longer communist.
It’s now fascist
A lot of poppycock there to digest.
I’d like to know more about “the day after Putin.” What would that look like exactly? Russians singing in the streets, LGBQT parades, peaceful protests, and toppling of monuments?
But wait…there will be a new constituent assembly to make sure the transition goes swimmingly. Hmm. Reminds me of something that happened more than a hundred years ago.
Finally, there’s the “rebuilding” of Ukraine. How can it possibly fail with more billions of bucks from American taxpayers?
The “make or break” moment for Ukraine has come and gone, thanks to inept Western diplomacy that got no further than Putin bad; Vlod good.
Nonsensical thinking like this is what starts world wars.
Why do we support violent defense of Ukraine? We should just tell them to erase their borders and celebrate multiculturalism and diversity. Not sure how much multiculti there is between them, or, for that matter, diversity.
But their border matters! It matters because it will enrich globalists and the U.S. military industrial complex. It will further erode our own sovereignty and diminish the prosperity and freedoms of the U.S. taxpayer. What’s not to love?
They are not the only vultures circling Ukraine. The massive corruption in Ukraine is no secret and there is still a great many spoils to be had provided the right government remains in place. Foremost is the cash laundering machine the U.S. has been using like its personal ATM. “Well, sonofabitch” indeed.
Kynarion Hellenis
Violent defense! You are hilarious.
Victory for Ukraine, democracy for Russia”……… please…… WTFAY? You mean “Democracy” like in UH and all of Western Europe where the citizens are dictated to by DemoCraps, EU, WEF, and muslims? THAT Democracy? Or the Democracy of Brazil and Venzuela and USA where the elections are stolen by the DemoCraps? THAT Democracy?
Sword of the Spirit
Unlike Russia where critics of the totalitarian regime are disappeared.
Is “poppycock” a four-letter word?
Poppycock is the English way of saying Puppy Cack which is Dutch for Puppy Shit, i.e. You are talking a load of shit.
Yes, we know, Putin is dying of Cancer and will be dead in a week. Russia was going to lost the war in three weeks and the vaccines are safe and effective. Who’s side are you people on?
Daniel
You’ve misplaced the script. Russia was supposed to roll over Ukraine in 3 weeks.
Last place I expected to see Western/Globalist propaganda.
I don’t like Putin but Ukraine/US are not on the right side. We regime changed Ukraine in 2014, created a lie called the Minsk Agreement in order to buy time to build up Ukraine’s military to fight Russia while, simultaneously, killing thousands of ethnic Russians in the Donbas for 8 years. We then provoked Russia by constantly expanding NATO closer and closer to the Russian border (something the US would never allow if the roles were reversed). And now, instead of trying to get a peace settlement, we are using Ukrainians as cannon fodder to enrich the politicians and the military industrial complex. It’s disgusting.
I am NOT reading this on frontpage ! Foreign Affairs ? has david lost his mind ? Putin is 100% IN the Right in this conflict and it is too bad he was sucked into the minsk agreements and did not act sooner. MBK is a wise ass with a grudge against Putin whose views are too prejudiced to be considered objective. Also he was totally in the wrong and got fairly reasonable treatment from Putin. He is alive and living a high life in London. I am ashamed of the actions of my country since the fall of the berlin wall. Putin accepted without retaliation many former federation members joining NATO (which as Kennan said should have been disbanded) but Eastern Ukraine was the line in sand. 14K ethnic russians killed by marauding battalions since ’14 and he is the fiend ? Has this country gone insane ?
I would have been much more comfortable with this post if it had some disclaimer at top. Two Jewish arch neo cons on the pages of this site I hope this is the last of this type of thing.
donna sherwood
The anti-semite weighs in. Does she know where she is posting?
CNN talks about Zelenskyy as the new “Churchill” and all our Politicians wave their little Ukrainian flags as Zelenskyy demands more billions and more weaponry on top of the 100 billion unaccountable dollars we have already sent him. While he gets a standing ovation in Congress, his wife in on a shopping spree in Paris and Ukrainian oligarchs are provably buying mansions in Switzerland. The World Corruption Index just ranked Ukraine 122 worst out of 180 countries ranked and the second worst in Europe, right behind Russia. And, oh yeah, the hero of Ukraine has shut down all but state controlled media, closed all Ukrainian Christian churches and even arrested priests.. Ukraine is not in NATO and was never in our National security interest and even Obama didn’t care when Russia took Crimea in 2014. The war could have had a negotiated peace last April but Biden and our politicians want regime change in Russia, not peace in Ukraine. And don’t tell me it will all be OK. How did those regime change wars work out in Iraq? in Afghanistan? and in Libya where Hillary helped overthrow Gaddafi and now they are just another failed terrorist state. It’s a war that we didn’t want, didn’t vote on and can’t win. And it’s nothing but a dangerous money pit that just may start WWIII.
The military industrial complex is where the money goes.
An article in Epoch Times last week was straightforward in reporting that Blackrock (and Fink) have committed funds to Ukraine, (Fink) “the best opportunity since WW II for investment… others in the article concur including some EU carpetbaggers. Most of our “funding” is money stolen from the US taxpayer and laundered by these criminals in the Ukraine. The oligarchs get their cut, the crooked US politicos get their cut and the people get the shaft. Our government became like the others in history only worse…” the corruption of the best is the worst”…
Biden is corrupt and demented. The United States would be much better of with a courageous patriotic reformer like Zelensky.
When Biden isn’t drooling over his pudding he is drooling about the thought of him being the U.S. President that brought down Russia. That’s a hard one for a narcissist to ignore.
Stan,
Well said! (upvote not working).
Howd’ja like Putin and Russia as your neighbor? Well neither would anyone in Western Europe. And that’s why you will not meet many people in Europe who do not support Ukraine. The first thing you would get for Russia as a neighbor is internal corruption as the ole KGB guy Putin works YOUR system to weaken you. Zelinsky’s doing one hell of a job for a TV comedian. The dude is not Winston Churchill yet he’s doing one hellacious job against a vastly superior enemy. The Ukrainians have not forgotten 1932-33 when the Russians murdered up to 5 million of their kin folk in the great enforced famine they call the Holodomor. They have not forgotten. They have not forgotten.
Wow, what an influx of Russian trolls in FP comments! One even mixed English and Russian writing UN as “UH”.
Looks like some higher-ups at the Moscow troll farm got triggered by the article from high-profile Russian dissidents.
China is the Globalist threat. Russia is aligned with China. The WEF is supporting Ukraine because it wants to be on the winning side.
I’ve tried to upvote you without success. The Ruskies excel at propaganda. Fortunately, as Putin’s misadventure in Ukraine proves, they aren’t very good at fighting. As has been obvious for 9 months..
But as Cathy Young of the Bulwark demonstrated, America’s far right is clueless. But of course, so are the Bushites at the Bulwark. She ended her fine piece by claiming that DeSantis is an opportunist. He is of course a great Governor. and will make a fine President.
Conservatives should not be too discouraged by the support of idiots on the right supporting Russia such as (no one cares pretty boy Carlson). Stalwarts like Levin and Pompeo support Ukraine, as does Trump.
Stan Hoppe
I’ve tried to upvote you without success. The Ruskies excel at propaganda. Fortunately, as Putin’s misadventure in Ukraine proves, they aren’t very good at fighting. As has been obvious for 9 months..
But as Cathy Young of the Bulwark demonstrated, America’s far right is clueless. But of course, so are the Bushites at the Bulwark. She ended her fine piece by claiming that DeSantis is an opportunist. He is of course a great Governor. and will make a fine President.
Conservatives should not be too discouraged by the support of idiots on the right supporting Russia such as (no one cares pretty boy Carlson). Stalwarts like Levin and Pompeo support Ukraine, as does Trump.
i have long admired David Horowitz. It must be gratifying for him to see that the majority of his commenters are smarter than a proven genius who is an actual Russian. The Far Right is so far right on Russia’s war on Ukraine it is left of Far Left.
Chcuo
The Ukainian Orthodox Church is supporting Russia.
Russia has been murdering their unarmed, civilians “brothers” since day one of this brutal invasion
The big difference between Putin and Obama was that while Putin was riding Motorcycles and horses Obama was riding a stupid bicycle and wearing one of those dumb pee pot helmets
Is Putin a good guy? No. But he’s not the devil his detractors want us to believe he is.
If Putin is as bad as we are told he is, how does the end badly for him without it going nuclear? And how it anything but careless to back a nuclear capable evil dictator into a corner. Over Ukraine of all things!