The new nuclear deal being readied to sign by China, France, Germany, Russia, UK, and the US, with Iran poses a threat to Israel in particular, but also to the US and the Arab Gulf states. The danger in the deal is not only from a nuclear Iran, but also from an economically empowered Islamic Republic of Iran. The impending signing of the revived 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) will make Tehran and Qom both a nuclear threat and an economic powerhouse that will enable them to become the ultimate regional hegemonic power. The new nuclear deal stands to provide Iran from now until the year 2030 with over $1 trillion in revenue from oil sales, investments, exporting arms and other commodities. It means that under the deal Iran would receive $275 billion of sanctions relief in the first year and $1 trillion by 2030.
The significant factor in making Iran dangerous and threatening is not merely the nuclear part, but its impending economic power it will gain. With billions to spare, Iran will be able to massively fund its global terror network that will destabilize not only the Middle East but most parts of the world. It would enable the Islamic Republic to devote huge sums to build and improve its long-range missiles, and build up its arms industry. Naturally Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in Gaza, the Houthis in Yemen, and the regimes in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and at least Sana’a, Yemen will be at Tehran’s beck and call.
The likelihood that Iran will use its nuclear power to attack Israel directly or its Arab Gulf neighbors is far less likely than its active use of its newly found economic clout given to Tehran by the appeasing western allies of the EU, UK, and the Biden/Obama administrations. It would be enough for the Ayatollahs to have a nuclear weapon at its disposal to intimidate Israel and others by threatening to use it. For example, should Israel seek to retaliate against Hamas, PIJ, or Hezbollah over a massive terror attack against Israel’s population or economic interests (such as the Karish gas platform), Jerusalem would have to endure painful choices. The Ayatollahs regime might also provide these terror groups with a “dirty bomb,” and thus avoid appearing to be directly involved in attacking Israel while inflicting irreparable damage to the Jewish state.
Although North Korea is now a nuclear power, it lacks economic clout, while its people are poor and starving. As a result, it has little impact on the region around it, and it has been isolated internationally. The Soviet Union during the Cold War has been, and as Russia is now, continues to be a nuclear power but its economic clout does not match its nuclear power. Hence, Russia is no match for the US or even China.
Apparently, former US President Donald Trump figured out correctly what his detractors did not, that appeasement of Iran by providing it with economic incentives was detrimental to the US and its allies interests. Under the 2015 JCPOA, and worse yet, in the impending 2022 deal, Iran will become a nuclear threshold state with $1 trillion in expected revenue at its disposal due to the end of the sanctions. Iran will then become a major economic power with billions of dollars to spend. It won’t serve the needs of the people of Iran, but rather increase the terror infrastructure of the regime domestically and globally. That is why Trump got the US out of Obama’s 2015 nuclear deal, in which he (Obama) provided the Ayatollahs with $1.8 billion in cash. Trump exerted maximum economic pressure on Iran by imposing devastating sanctions that forced the Iranian regime to cut payments to its terror network, including Hezbollah and Hamas.
The Hill (January 11, 2020) reported President Trump as saying, “Iran’s hostilities substantially increased after after the foolish Iran nuclear deal was signed in 2015 and they were given $150 billion, not to mention $1.8 billion in cash…Then, Iran went on a terror spree, funded by the money from the deal and created hell in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan, and Iraq. The missiles fired last night at us and our allies were paid for with the funds made available by the last (Obama) administration.”
The Forbes Magazine piece (3/17/2022) titled New US-Iran Deal? Why Biden’s Pursuit is Dangerous and delusional asserts that “Contrary to White House fantasies, Iran has no intention of giving up its ambition to become a nuclear power.” Forbes goes on to point out that, “A new deal, like the 2015 one it would replace, would enable Iran to become a nuclear-threshold state within three years. It would have enough uranium to make numerous bombs. The deal has other flaws, such as letting the Ayatollahs get their bloodstained hands on nearly $100 billion in foreign currencies. It does nothing about Iran’s ballistic missile program nor the proxy militias it has throughout the region.” In addition, in the new nuclear deal arrangement, the sanctions on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would remain but would exclude Iranian companies that have ties to the IRGC, making the sanctions meaningless.
The Iranian regime is currently attacking US military bases in Iraq and Syria, kidnapping American citizens and falsely charging them with spying. At this very time, Tehran is subverting Iraq’s independence by trying to install in power its Baghdad loyalists. The Ayatollahs have not made it a secret that they intend to push the US out of the region through terror and intimidation. Yet, as the Biden administration continues to give in to the Ayatollahs demands, while the Europeans carry on with their appeasement, despite Iranian terror on their soil. The Ayatollahs know that they will have the upper hand no matter what happens. They know, too, that the western powers and the Biden administration have no stomach for a military option, and the western appeasers will do all they can to stop Israel from exercising their right of self-defense. Iran is also cognizant that the western powers want a deal at all costs.
The Biden administration’s desperate push to have a deal and its willingness to make concessions that would subsidize Iran’s continuing military buildup, its proxy terrorist network, internal repression, and a nuclear program is dangerous and ill conceived. Moreover, it will drive the region into becoming nuclearized. Saudi Arabia will undoubtedly buy a bomb from Pakistan, and others in the region might do the same. The Middle East has long been a powder keg ready to explode. The current deal would only shorten the fuse.