Iran’s Nuclear Doctrine Signals a New Threat to Israel

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Amid ongoing tensions between Iran and Israel, the Islamic Republic’s political and military leaders have begun openly hinting at a shift in the regime’s nuclear doctrine. This is more than psychological warfare against the “Zionist enemy”; it’s a signal with potentially catastrophic consequences. The world, especially Israel and the United States, must take note before it’s too late.

Kamal Kharrazi, political advisor to Ayatollah Khamenei, recently announced that Iran may change its nuclear doctrine in response to Israel’s attacks. Kharrazi also stated that Iran is developing long-range ballistic missiles, presumed to be capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

In a meeting with a group of students, Ayatollah Khamenei, the regime’s Supreme Leader, was asked by a student whether he would consider changing the nuclear doctrine and issuing a secondary fatwa on nuclear weapons. In response, he stated, “everyone should know that in this struggle, every necessary military, armament, and political action for the readiness of the Iranian nation will be taken, and the authorities are already engaged in such efforts.” The regime’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ spokesperson also said, “we will equip ourselves with whatever is necessary to defend Iran.”

The proclamations are the clearest indication yet that a power struggle around a response to the Israeli Air Force bombing raid on October 26 has tilted towards the hardline faction of the Revolutionary Guards. Brigadier General Ahmad Haqtalab, who is in charge of the security and protection of the nuclear sites, elaborated on the reasons for revising the nuclear doctrine. He mentioned that a “revision of the nuclear doctrine and the nuclear policy of the Islamic Republic is possible and conceivable” if Israel “intends to use the threat of attacking nuclear facilities as a means to pressure Iran.”

Supporters within the regime argue that developing nuclear weapons is necessary because the situation in the region has worsened for Iran. They believe that Ali Khamenei’s fatwa on the prohibition of nuclear weapons could be altered according to current circumstances, similar to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founding father of the Islamic regime, who changed some of his fatwas, including the 1989 ruling on the prohibition of playing chess. A fatwa in Islamic tradition is a legal opinion or interpretation issued by a jurist or mufti concerning Islamic law.

In early 2003, two years after the United States labeled Iran as part of the “Axis of Evil” and following the US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, Ayatollah Khamenei issued a fatwa declaring the production and development of nuclear weapons forbidden (haram). This declaration was driven by concerns that Iran might be the next target of a US invasion. It was intended to de-escalate tensions with the West and frame Iran’s nuclear ambitions as entirely peaceful.

Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a member of parliament, says that this so-called fatwa is regarding the “use of nuclear weapons, not their production or storage,” and that “this fatwa can and should be altered,” because in his opinion, “in the current situation, where the security, interests, and the territorial integrity of the Islamic Republic of Iran are threatened by Israel,” the regime “cannot be bound by a fatwa that was issued under entirely different circumstances.”

Amidst this push for nuclear acquisition, it is crucial to note that Iran has already made significant progress towards obtaining nuclear weapons. The regime has advanced in enriching uranium to a weapons-grade level and developing the delivery vehicle (missile). According to the latest assessments by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), the regime can rapidly produce weapon-grade uranium (WGU) by further enriching its safeguarded stocks of 20 and 60 percent enriched uranium to 90 percent. As of September 2024, Iran could produce enough WGU for a nuclear weapon in seven days and have enough for six to nine nuclear weapons in a month at it’s the deeply buried Fordow enrichment plant and Natanz enrichment plant. In fact, Iran accomplished so much in the weaponization of its nuclear activities, it’s only a few unfinished developmental tasks to complete before building a crude nuclear weapon, as estimated by ISIS.

An Iranian bomb could trigger a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and hasten a US withdrawal from the region, which would be a strategic disadvantage for Israel.

Obviously, the regime hopes to use its doctrine-change rhetoric in its ongoing psychological war with the “Zionist enemy.” However, the policy implications of the revision could be serious, including severing relations with the IAEA or even withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Israel, the United States, and the international community must remain vigilant. With Trump now re-elected as President of the United States, he should once again prioritize containing Iran’s nuclear ambitions, as he did during his first term.

Farhad Rezaei is a senior fellow at the Philos Project.