Poll numbers have been going up and down, but the latest SRSS figures show Biden in a dominant position with everyone else struggling. That suggests that the impact of the debates has been fairly limited. And the poll has the worst possible news for Kamala Harris.
The shift returns Biden to a double-digit lead over his nearest competitors, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 15% and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 14%. Their support is largely unchanged since earlier this summer.
Aside from Biden’s increase, the only statistically meaningful change in the candidate standings is a 12-point decline in support for California Sen. Kamala Harris, who stood at 17% support in the June poll but now has the backing of 5% of potential Democratic voters. That’s similar to the level of support she had in the spring before a surge following her initial debate performance.
At this point, Kamala is tied with Buttigieg. She’s 2% above Beto O’Rourke. She’s polling below the poll’s margin of error. These are numbers that might qualify her for a VP slot if the likely nominee didn’t, by this point, hate her guts.
Her path forward was gender and race, breaking away Biden’s base of black voters, and fracturing his share of female voters.
Kamala has failed miserably in this regard.
Biden actually performs slightly better among non-white than white voters. As does Kamala. But 7% is not a whole lot better than 5%.
But it’s still better than Cory Booker who’s at 2% among white voters and 1% among non-white voters. It takes something special for a minority Democrat to poll worse among minorities than whites.
But Cory’s got that thing.
Another surprise though is that Beto O’Rourke, whose campaign has crashed and burned among his base, is polling at 6% among non-white voters, (almost as well as Kamala Harris), but only at 3% overall. It seems as if his campaign to keep screaming about racism is working.