The ‘wokening’ of the Dems led to a party whose base consists of suburban white lefties and older black women with Hispanics, once the great minority hope, as a swing vote, leaning left, but able to unexpectedly change depending on current economic conditions.
That’s the context in which to view this widely hyped Zogby poll in which 1 in 5 Dems expressed regret at voting for Biden.
The numbers are in some ways even worse than they sound because they indicate that working-class minorities are starting to turn on Biden along with what little is left of his working-class white base.
That and the fall-off kicks in with younger voters who are more likely to have jobs.
For example, younger voters aged 18-29 (27% yes/67% no/6% not sure) and middle aged voters aged 30-49 (30% yes/67% no/4% not sure) were much more likely to regret voting for Biden than older voters aged 50-64 (10% yes/87% no/3% not sure) and 65+ (6% yes/91% no/3% not sure).
Is this a response to Biden’s failure to get the full lefty program through? Maybe, but doubtful because even the usual radicals screaming about neo-liberalism have pulled their punches when it comes to Biden. The administration has tried for a balance of establishment and radical types to create a fairly smooth coalition. (It’s not the worst idea.) And most of the fire has been directed at moderate Dems in the House.
It might be worth considering that this is a response to the failure to reopen the economy.
Older voters, who may be retired and are more concerned about their health, are more okay with the tradeoff between safety and employment. The younger voters, who are more likely to be employed, aren’t. We’ve seen similar patterns in California and elsewhere.
Now here’s where things get really interesting.
Hispanics (33% yes/63% no/4% not sure) and African Americans (25% yes/70% no/5% not sure) were more likely than white voters (16% yes/80% no/4% not sure) to regret voting for Biden.
Black people were Biden’s base. They carried him through the primaries.
Biden’s strategy with black voters mirrored Trump’s strategy with conservatives. A huge bear hug. Black political influencers, especially on the Left, got everything they wanted. No matter how racist an appointee was, even someone like Kirsten Clarke, the Biden admin didn’t blink.
A 25% drop from this demographic is shocking, especially compared to white voters.
Now that may be because Dems have lost most of the white voters, especially working-class voters, that they can afford to lose.
That also helps explain the rural-urban split in the poll.
Urban voters (28% yes/67% no/4% not sure) were twice as likely to regret voting for Biden than suburban (14% yes/83% no/4%not sure) and rural voters (12% yes/86% no/3%not sure).
There’s only so many more rural voters that Democrats can even lose.
The urban-suburban split however highlights what’s going on here. Urban minority voters are turning on Biden. Why? Bread and butter issues. The economy, despite all the New York Times gaslighting, is terrible and with more pandemic instability, urban minorities are the likeliest to take an immediate hit.
This poll was taken before Afghanistan. The issue on most people’s minds was the economy. And it will be again.
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