During the original pandemic recall polls, Newsom’s bad polls were due to doing poorly with Latino voters.
The new bad polls have shifted with this recent Berkeley poll showing that he’s lost support among likely white voters while holding strong with black voters, unsurprisingly at 77 for, and reasonably well with Latino voters at 56 for and 40 against.
White likely voters are split 50 to 49 which is well within the margin of error.
The interesting action though is happening among Asian likely voters where support for removing Newsom now sits at 50 to 48.
The old bad pandemic recall polls seemed to be driven by lockdown anger from Latinos. While the threat of shutdowns remains, Latino voters have been returning to the Democrat camp. Now it’s white voters, a group that was not as angry over lockdowns, and Asians, turning on Newsom.
The rise in violent crime may be a factor.
California Democrats have heavily depended on immigrants and they’ve still got them, but they’re not the firewall they were supposed to be with immigrants voting to recall by 44 to 52. Among union households it’s not much better with a 45 to 48 split.
There is still a class difference with high school graduates voting to recall 56 to 42 while Newsom retains the support of college graduates 56 to 40.
But the only income group where Newsom is underwater is among those making $40 to $60K.
Finally on the partisan lean.
Obviously, Trump voters support the recall 97 to 1. And Biden voters oppose it 91 to 6.
That means Dems have managed to keep their voters on the plantation.
But among those who didn’t vote or wouldn’t say how they voted, the vast majority support recalling Newsom.