The two week “cessation of hostilities” within Syria is about to run out. Negotiated by the United States and Russia, who were responsible for bringing the parties over which they have influence along, the lull was intended as a confidence building measure and as a way of getting critical humanitarian supplies to besieged and hard to reach areas of Syria. Talks between Syrian government and opposition representatives are supposed to resume in Geneva on March 9th.

Secretary of State John Kerry hailed the agreement to temporarily halt the violence in a conflict that has taken more than 250,000 lives as “a moment of promise.” While there is evidence that the fighting has dropped noticeably overall since the cessation of hostilities went into effect on February 26, 2016, the violence never really stopped. On the second day alone of the lull, there were reportedly “35 breaches, 27 by violations by government forces, 8 by Russian forces,” according to the Syrian Network for Human Rights.

Airstrikes continued throughout Syria, some by Russia on the pretext that they were aimed at fighting ISIS and al Nusra. Rebel-held enclaves in and around Aleppo have come under particularly intense bombing attacks, said to be by Russian planes.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said last Saturday that 135 people have lost their lives in areas where there was supposed to be a pause in hostilities. According to Israeli sources, the Syrian government has reportedly used chemical weapons against civilians since the cessation of hostilities were supposed to go into effect.

The United Nations has nevertheless been able to use the drop in hostilities to deliver some desperately needed humanitarian relief, although it has been stymied by bureaucratic obstacles put in the UN’s way by Syrian authorities. Sometimes, Syrian officials have gone so far as removing medical supplies from humanitarian convoys that had received permission to deliver their cargoes.

Perhaps the United States and Russia will push for an extension of the cessation of hostilities. Kerry and his Russian counterpart, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, have called for a prompt resumption of the peace talks in Syria, which would be hard to assemble if fighting resumes full throttle. They are evidently hoping that the partial success of the lull in fighting so far will provide momentum for successful talks. If so, they are dreaming. Kerry in particular is relying on the fatally flawed road map to a negotiated political solution in Syria that was laid out in last December’s UN Security Council Resolution 2258 (2015). As I wrote last December when the resolution was adopted, the players were simply kicking the can down the road to no avail.

The Syrian regime, with Russia’s help, has made major military gains on the ground in recent months. Momentum is on its side. The opposition groups are losing negotiating leverage every day as a result of the regime’s advances and the opposition’s own internal divisions. Though the opposition is at least united on calling for Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad to step down immediately, they are whistling in the wind. Assad has no reason to go as long as Russia and Iran remain willing to stand behind him.

Russia has clearly changed the whole strategic situation in Syria by showing its willingness to engage militarily to the extent necessary to keep Assad in power as long as he serves their purposes. Just as President Obama foolishly dismissed the ISIS threat early on, his dismissal of Russia’s determination and capabilities was premature, to say the least.

The Obama administration’s vacillations in its Syrian policies, which left vacuums for both ISIS and Russia to fill, are now limiting its options going forward. Even in the unlikely case that President Obama now believes that the introduction of a large number of U.S. ground troops has become necessary to fight ISIS, give a nudge to Assad to abdicate and help stabilize what is left of Syria, the American people would not support the prospect of another protracted conflict in the Middle East.

Moreover, the Obama administration cannot even lead the way among its own allies, much less bridge the gap with Russia and Iran who remain committed to Assad. The administration’s efforts to assemble a real coalition of Arab nations willing to commit major ground troops to fight ISIS in tandem with our stepped up airstrikes have gone nowhere. Saudi Arabia and Qatar do not appear willing to cut off the flow of arms and money to the jihadists, whether or not they belong to ISIS or al Nusra. Saudi Arabia is even insisting on which opposition groups should officially represent the opposition in the Geneva talks, with little apparent pushback from the Obama administration.

Turkey is presenting its own headaches for the Obama administration. Its strongman president Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused the Obama administration of adopting a policy that has turned the Mideast into “a sea of blood.” He was particularly upset that the U.S. is relying on Kurdish fighters in Syria to help take on ISIS. The Kurds have been among the most effective ground forces we have to push back ISIS from territories it controls. Erdogan, however, regards the Kurds as terrorists who are more dangerous than ISIS. He blocked the Syrian Kurds from having any official representation in the Geneva peace talks, and is asking the U.S. to choose between Turkey and the Kurds as allies. The way Erdogan has been acting the last several years, we should tell him that unless he starts to fully cooperate and subordinate his parochial concerns to the global fight against ISIS, we will be prepared to support an independent Kurdistan right on his border. That should get his attention.

In short, the cessation of hostilities interlude, even if extended, will do nothing to change the underlying dynamics preventing a viable peace accord leading to the kind of inclusive Syrian government the Obama administration would like to see. However, to the extent lives have been saved and humanitarian relief has been allowed to get through for the first time, the pause in fighting has been a good thing in itself.