Countries from around the world are finally rallying against Syrian dictator Bashar Assad, after 2,000 civilians have been killed and 25,000 detained since the uprising began. The U.S. will call on Assad to step down as early as Thursday, and the Turkish Foreign Minister is warning him that he could follow in the footsteps of Muammar Qaddafi. The Middle East now braces to see if Assad will fall and if he does, how much damage he will do on his way out and what will replace him.
This week, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan said that he had “run out of patience” with Assad, and that the Foreign Minister would arrive in Damascus to deliver a “stern message.” Turkey “cannot remain a spectator” and the crisis in Syria is considered a “domestic matter,” he said. The Foreign Minister reportedly told Assad that he risked sharing the fate of Libyan dictator Muammar Qaddafi. The Turks told him to set a firm date for free elections, end the violence, free all political prisoners, and immediately begin sweeping democratic reforms.
The Turkish ambassador to Syria then went to Hama, as the U.S. and French ambassadors did last month. When the U.S. and French envoys arrived to stand with the protesters, they were greeted with cheers, flowers and olive branches. The Syrian tanks backed out of Hama as the Turkish ambassador arrived, only to re-enter as soon as he left. The Assad regime dismissed the Turks, and vowed to pursue the “terrorist groups” in the country. Erdogan gave a deadline on August 10, saying he hopes that Assad will implement reforms within the next 10-15 days. The Turkish government also confirmed that it intercepted Iranian arms to Syria.
There had been talk of the Turkish military creating a buffer zone within Syria to protect the refugees. Some officials say this option is still being discussed, and pointed to the presence of the Chief of the General Staff in a meeting about Syria this week. It was reported that the Turks were preparing to possibly establish a zone along the border, and possibly as far in as Aleppo, Homs, Hama and Latakia. However, one senior Turkish official says this option has been ruled out, but that sanctions are on the table.
The Assad regime’s brutality is finally resulting in international pressure. On August 3, the U.N. Security Council condemned its behavior. The Gulf Cooperation Council and the Arab League have likewise demanded an end to the repression. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait have recalled their ambassadors from Syria. Saudi King Abdullah demanded an end to Assad’s “killing machine.” The Syrian regime is rounding up dozens of Saudi nationals in the country in response. The Egyptian Foreign Minister said that the situation is reaching the “point of no return,” and that Assad must end the violence or risk “foreign interference.” The grand imam of Al-Azhar University, the leading Sunni religious authority, is now speaking out against the regime. The speaker of Iraq’s parliament is calling on Assad to “stop the bloodshed.” The Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, is even saying he will have a “sad fate” if the oppression persists.
Remarkably, the Palestinians inside of Syria are siding with the protesters. On July 1, over 3,000 Palestinians in Hama took part in the protests. The regime’s Nakba Day provocations against Israel failed to generate a strong Palestinian reaction. One Palestinian from the Yarmouk camp said, “We will not accept to be a bargaining chip for the Syrian regime.” The regime tried to rally support by sending Ahmed Jibril, the leader of the PFLP-GC terrorist group, to condemn Israel at funerals in Yarmouk for killed protesters. The attendees threw rocks at him, and yelled at him not to take advantage of the Palestinian cause. The Palestinian protesters then attacked the PFLP-GC headquarters, and 11 were killed by the security forces.
The U.S. and European Union are preparing stronger measures. The U.S. has sanctioned the largest mobile phone company, which is tied to the regime, and the largest commercial bank that is used for weapons proliferation by the regime and North Korea. The European Union placed sanctions on five more Syrian officials, bringing the total number of blacklisted figures to 35. An unidentified Western government is financing an investigative team to collect evidence for an International Criminal Court indictment of Assad.
American and European sanctions on the oil and gas sector may be particularly painful to the Syrian regime, especially if coupled with sanctions by Turkey and other countries in the region. Oil exports account for $4 billion of the regime’s $17.8 billion budget. European companies are important for business. For example, 17 percent of Syria’s tanks use fuel from Royal Dutch Shell. Benjamin Weinthal of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies writes, “The rank and file of the Syrian armed forces depends on energy profits for its livelihood.”
The fall of Assad would be a major strategic loss for Iran, and would significantly injure Hamas, Hezbollah, and other terrorist groups. The regime is an enemy of the U.S., with the blood of American soldiers on its hands. However, the Muslim Brotherhood is on the ground in Syria, and hopes to use regime change to propel itself to power. One of its spokesmen pointedly said, “We have a desire to coordinate the position of the opposition.”
The Syrian regime is finally being held accountable, but it will not go down with a long, bloody fight. And should it fall, another struggle will begin over what the future of Syria will be. If the West is going to try to make Assad fall, it must also prepare for what follows.
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